It’s plain that Payton Pritchard has been cooking with one thing slightly stronger than canola oil. His minutes and effectivity are each up, his scoring is approach up, and the vibes are so up they’re blowing a gap by the ceiling and attaining escape velocity. Is all of this actual, and whether it is, what ought to we do with it?
Saturday night time’s conflict with the Charlotte Hornets gave us some extra knowledge to work with. He dropped 22 factors in 29 minutes, bought sizzling within the first half and cooled off within the second. It’s his fifth 15+ level efficiency of the season, and by a number of counting stats, he needs to be the favourite to win Sixth Man of the 12 months. Betting markets sure think so.
However has Pritchard truly turn into a dynamic off-the-bench spark plug who might bail the Celtics out of sketchy conditions in large video games? After mainly enjoying particular groups within the NBA Finals, has he executed sufficient for a constant position come playoff time? It will not be such a easy “sure.”
Whereas it’s true that Pritchard is scoring so much, he’s nonetheless a one-dimensional offensive participant. He’s feisty off the ball, however as soon as he will get it, he’s nonetheless a pure three-point specialist that has gotten criminally sizzling 4 occasions in seven video games. Out of 78 complete photographs this season, 66 of them have threes. That’s not a very fascinating shot food regimen, however it’s nearly definitely what the Celtics need him doing in Joe Mazzulla’s system.
And he’s knocking them down. Of all NBA gamers with at the very least 50 three-point makes an attempt this season, he’s first in shooting percentage at 44.9%. Any group would kill for that quantity off the bench, particularly at first rate quantity. With the Celtics asking different groups to protect 4 completely different good-to-great creators, rolling out a sniper to go with them is the maraschino cherry on the award-winning ice cream sundae from the Del Frisco’s dessert menu.
The outcomes have been there, however Pritchard’s downside might be reproducing them when the Celtics really want it. He hasn’t achieved this superb 45% by a bunch of strong nights, however by being both scalding sizzling or frigid from past the arc, with no in-between. Listed below are his first seven splits in chronological order:
11.1%
50.0%
71.4%
66.7%
36.4%
0.0%
50.0%
Capturing is a fickle artwork. With what number of of his photographs are threes, Pritchard might be extra prone to the swings of variance than most different gamers in his tier. There’s a motive you reside by the three and die by the three. There isn’t any both/or in that enterprise.
Basically, Pritchard lacks the additive abilities wanted to remain on the courtroom if his shot isn’t falling for anyone night time. He’s not a detrimental or disinterested defender, however lacks the bodily instruments to hold with most elite shot creators who will search and destroy Pritchard time and again.
Many iterations of this Celtics group have wanted Pritchard’s taking pictures on paper, however have been unable to maintain him on the market in the actual world. With pick-and-roll destroyers like Jimmy Butler and Donovan Mitchell lurking within the Jap Convention and loads of assassins within the West, Pritchard’s limitations can solely be masked by a nuclear offensive outburst. Would the Celtics wager on that in a playoff collection?
I’m unsure they’d. With everybody wholesome, Sam Hauser will possible stay the Celtics’ seventh man in most matchups, with a defensive capability Pritchard merely lacks. If the Celtics lose somebody to damage, Pritchard is an efficient “break glass in case of emergency” creator who could make one thing occur off the dribble, his primary leg up on Hauser. However when the off-the-dribble tasks are lined, Pritchard’s position could also be smaller than some will need.
Pritchard has proven a capability to enhance yr over yr, as since falling out of the rotation in 2022 he has carved out extra minutes, photographs and factors for himself whereas securing a brand new contract. That’s no small feat, and the Celtics will proceed to sculpt methods for him to make an influence; half-court photographs are solely the start.
Relying on how optimistic you’re, that is both the subsequent step in Pritchard’s improvement as an elite scoring sixth man or a wonderful aberration fueled by unsustainable three-point luck. However questioning if Pritchard goes to be a purposeful sixth man within the playoffs is an efficient downside to have, and extra indicative of the Celtics’ embarrassment of riches than one thing Boston ought to truly lose sleep over.
If he can play, nice. If he doesn’t have it, they’ll be advantageous. The problem might be determining which sport is which, and the Celtics have six months to find out how. Certain, Pritchard’s begin to the season is perhaps a mirage, however one you may take info from and use it to get higher. Not a foul deal. Not dangerous in any respect.
