The Weakest Positions on the Remaining NL Contenders

The Dodgers’ defeat of the Padres on Wednesday evening did lots to clear up the final suspenseful division race by restoring their NL West result in three video games, decreasing their magic quantity to 2, and slicing the San Diego’s odds of profitable the division to three%. The larger story, nevertheless — an infuriating one given commissioner Rob Manfred’s unwillingness to override the Braves’ profit-minded intransigence with some proactive schedule shifting — is the Hurricane Helene-induced postponement of the ultimate two video games of the Mets-Braves sequence. Until the Diamondbacks slide fully out of the image, the 2 NL East rivals will now play a 1:10 p.m. ET doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, the day after the scheduled finish of the common season. Whichever of the 2 groups survives (presumably each) would then face flights to Milwaukee (locked in because the third seed) and/or California (both Los Angeles or San Diego because the fourth seed) to begin their respective Wild Card sequence the subsequent day, with their pitching staffs at a big drawback. Ugh, ugh, ugh.

Anyway, having gone across the horn after which some to establish the strongest gamers at every place among the many remaining contenders within the National and American Leagues, we now flip to the weakest ones. That is one thing of an offshoot of my annual Alternative Stage Killers sequence, and in reality, even some confirmed October members have spots that also match the invoice as true lineup sinkholes, solely this time with no commerce deadline to assist fill them. For this, I’m contemplating full-season efficiency however with an eye fixed to who’s finest or worst now, with accidents and changes in thoughts. Not like the Killers sequence, I’m additionally contemplating pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.

On this installment, I’ll spotlight the most important hassle spots from amongst an NL area that features the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves.

Catcher: Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz, Padres

Padres catchers have mixed for 1.0 WAR, the bottom mark of any remaining contender in both league by 1.4 WAR. The latest addition of Elias Díaz through waivers, and the following optioning of Luis Campusano — whose 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR, with ghastly defensive metrics in each taste, are what has actually weighed that rating down — mitigates that considerably. Nonetheless, a pairing of Díaz with Kyle Higashioka stands out extra as flimsy relative to the competitors than an precise legal responsibility. Higashioka is a better-than-average hitter for a backstop because of his energy; he hit .218/.264/.470 (104 wRC+), with 16 house runs in 251 plate appearances, and he’s at the very least first rate defensively (3.7 FRM, -3 FRV together with blocking and throwing). Díaz is weaker with the bat (.266/.315/.381, 82 wRC+) however equally stable behind the plate. Now if solely they’d a former shortstop who might catch…

First Base: Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, Brewers

After lacking the entire 2023 season on account of a torn ACL, Rhys Hoskins has struggled mightily, batting simply .213/.303/.415 (100 wRC+). He’s nonetheless supplied sufficient pop to hit 25 house runs, however he’s not hitting the ball as exhausting as he did earlier than his harm, he’s placing out extra usually, and let’s face it, protection nonetheless isn’t his robust swimsuit. Jake Bauers, who has began 58 video games to Hoskins’ 86 (with the latter making 36 begins at DH), is the higher defender, however as his .197/.299/.363 (87 wRC+) slashline exhibits, he has but to indicate he’s above Quad-A caliber. Hoskins has hit for a 117 wRC+ with significantly better Statcast numbers in September, so perhaps there’s a glimmer of hope right here, however apart from San Diego’s Luis Arraez/Jake Cronenworth/Donovan Solano mishmash, the remainder of the NL area options good-to-great first basemen, and I’d take that Pad pod over the Brewers’ pair.

Second Base: Ozzie Albies, Braves

Whereas I thought of the Phillies’ Bryson Stott (who has hit for simply an 84 wRC+ within the second half) for this spot, he and his backups have greater than doubled the WAR of Braves second basemen (3.0 to 1.2), even with Whit Merrifield enjoying extra successfully for the latter membership than the previous. Atlanta’s drawback has lots to do with Ozzie Albies lacking two months on account of a fractured left wrist. Albies is again, however he’s simply 3-for-19 with a house run and an 85.3-mph common exit velocity in 4 video games, and has hit a modest .253/.303/.403 (94 wRC+) with 9 homers this yr, nicely off final yr’s efficiency (124 wRC+, 33 HR). The Braves have greater liabilities (see beneath), however I’m not but satisfied that makes Albies an asset in his present kind.

Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves

In 2023, Orlando Arcia stepped into the beginning shortstop function vacated by departed free agent Dansby Swanson and turned a sizzling first half into the primary All-Star number of his profession; even after cooling off final season, he completed with a decent .264/.321/.420 (100 wRC+) line and a couple of.4 WAR. This yr, nevertheless, he wound up on my midseason Replacement Level Killers list, and whereas he’s had a greater second half (95 wRC+) than first (56 wRC+), his total efficiency (.219/.271/.357, 72 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) makes him by far the least invaluable of any common shortstop on an NL contender — and his monitor file, together with his struggles in Milwaukee, put him a lot nearer to this season’s degree than final yr’s.

Third Base: Gio Urshela, Braves

It’s not my intent to maintain selecting on the Braves, however they’re in a bind right here, and the competitors at this place is stiff. Eugenio Suárez was my decide for the place’s strongest on the premise of his hot second half, getting the nod over Alec Bohm and Manny Machado, with Max Muncy, Joey Ortiz, and Mark Vientos all having good seasons as nicely. Austin Riley wasn’t enjoying as much as his typical degree earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18, however he’d have match into that latter cluster simply superb and would’ve made this selection a really troublesome one. Sadly, whereas the Braves hoped Riley would return in time for the playoffs, on Tuesday they revealed {that a} CT scan taken earlier this week confirmed his hand hadn’t healed sufficient to make him a viable choice earlier than the top of the postseason. That places fill-in Gio Urshela into the crosshairs. Launched by the Tigers in mid-August after posting a 75 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR, he has carried out respectably since being picked up by the Braves (.270/.288/.426, 95 wRC+ in 118 PA), however even when he might preserve that degree, he’d nonetheless be the least interesting choice of this group.

Left Discipline: Brandon Nimmo, Mets

I used to be all set to go along with the Braves right here as nicely till digging into their latest utilization sample, with hot-hitting Ramón Laureano (.301/.332/.510, 131 wRC+ in 205 PA for the staff after being launched by the Guardians) enjoying kind of full time these days whereas Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall have been justifiably benched for tried alternative degree killing. As an alternative I’m going with Brandon Nimmo. The usually dependable outfielder’s 111 wRC+ and a couple of.8 WAR are nicely beneath his typical requirements as a result of he’s hit an anemic .190/.285/.319 (70 wRC+) for the reason that All-Star break. Even with 4 house runs in his previous 10 video games, his wRC+ for the month continues to be simply 81. Perhaps he’s rising from his hunch, however at a place the place 5 different common left fielders on NL contenders have produced a 130 wRC+ or better within the second half, he’s not pulling his weight.

Heart Discipline: Harrison Bader, Mets

Nimmo isn’t the one Mets outfielder in a chronic hunch. Harrison Bader has out-funked his teammate, batting .177/.245/.300 (57 wRC+) in 143 PA within the second half, and has hit for simply an 83 wRC+ with 1.5 WAR total. He’s nonetheless an honest flychaser, although his 10 FRV doesn’t line up with average-ish totals in DRS (-2) and UZR (0.2).

Proper Discipline: Sal Frelick, Brewers

A former first-round decide (2021) and top-50 prospect (2023), Sal Frelick is a speedy hit-over-power sort whose offensive profile makes way more sense in heart area (the place he’s noticed sometimes) than in proper. He merely doesn’t hit the ball exhausting sufficient. His 83.4 mph common exit velo, 0.8% barrel charge (that’s three barrels in 395 batted ball occasions), and 19.5% hard-hit charge all rank final among the many 130 batting title-qualified hitters, and it’s translated right into a meager .259/.321/.334 line, along with his 86 wRC+ second-to-last among the many gamers whose major place is true area. His defensive worth helps to offset the sunshine bat; even with some small-sample weirdness in left area, he’s totaled 13 DRS, 6 FRV and 4.2 UZR throughout the three outfield positions en path to 1.5 WAR.

Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Mets

Final yr with the Dodgers, J.D. Martinez reunited with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, who a decade in the past helped him unlock his energy by hitting the ball within the air with larger frequency, thus placing him on the forefront of the launch angle revolution and on the trail to stardom. The reunion helped Martinez to his finest season since 2019, a 33-homer, 135-wRC+ efficiency, however the signing of Shohei Ohtani put him out of a job in Los Angeles. He languished on the free agent market till late March, and after signing with the Mets, wanted a minor league tuneup and didn’t debut till April 26. For awhile issues went very nicely, as he hit .263/.349/.457 (130 wRC+) with 10 house runs in 278 PA earlier than the All-Star break. He’s joined Nimmo and Bader within the dumps since then, batting simply .194/.276/.339 (77 wRC+), together with a 3-for-44 September worthy of placing his face on the facet of a milk carton. Have you ever seen this slugger?

Rotation: Dodgers

It’s not that the Dodgers had been doomed to repeat final yr’s Division Collection unraveling as a result of they forgot what occurred. They loaded up on high-end beginning pitching this previous winter by signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and buying and selling for Tyler Glasnow, then including James Paxton and bringing again Clayton Kershaw with a plan for him to return from main shoulder surgical procedure in midsummer. With these pitchers — fragile although they could have been — becoming a member of their present wealth of younger arms (together with Walker Buehler and Dustin May, each getting back from elbow surgical procedures), the Dodgers figured they’d sufficient pitching to make it by the season and assemble a robust rotation for the playoffs.

It hasn’t occurred that approach, as each common starter of theirs in addition to the oft-injured Paxton — together with the entire aforementioned plus Bobby Miller — landed on the IL in some unspecified time in the future, with Miller and Buehler pitching like shadows of their former selves and incomes demotions to Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis. Now their solely two starters to succeed in the 100-inning threshold — Glasnow and rookie Gavin Stone — have been done in by arm injuries (an elbow sprain for the previous, shoulder irritation for the latter). Kershaw is on the IL on account of a bone spur in his left massive toe, and Yamamoto has but to pitch greater than 4 innings in a begin since getting back from a 12-week absence on account of a rotator cuff pressure. Even with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty forward of the commerce deadline, the Los Angeles rotation has produced a 5.02 ERA and 4.75 FIP since July 30, and rookie Landon Knack and the struggling Buehler could very nicely want to begin alongside Yamamoto and Flaherty within the Division Collection. Not even a $255 million payroll should purchase certainty.

Bullpen: Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks reached the World Collection final yr regardless of an unsteady bullpen that was drastically aided by their buying and selling for nearer Paul Sewald on the deadline. Sadly for them, Sewald pitched his approach out of the ninth inning job by blowing 4 saves in July, and his alternative, Justin Martinez, has allowed runs in 10 of his 22 appearances since notching his first save on August 5, changing eight out of 9 save probabilities however taking 4 losses alongside the best way. The bullpen fared very nicely in August (3.34 ERA, 2.97 FIP) however has been terrible in September (6.39 ERA, 4.24 FIP) due largely to a .362 BABIP and much an excessive amount of exhausting contact. Whereas one deadline acquisition, A.J. Puk, is using a streak of twenty-two 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings, one other addition, Dylan Floro, pitched his way off the roster with a double-digit ERA; in the meantime setup man Ryan Thompson has been lit for a 6.86 ERA for the reason that begin of August, and Sewald has landed on the IL with neck discomfort. Unhealthy pitching (together with the starters) has been the main driver of Arizona’s 4-7 skid that has stored the door broad open for each the Braves and Mets, climate be damned.

Protection: Padres

Among the many remaining NL contenders, the Padres have the bottom DRS (-9) and UZR (-8.4), and so they’re inside one run of the bottom FRV (-12). To be truthful, these numbers are weighed down by the since-demoted Campusano, however of their present state, the Padres do have points. The return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from a 10-week absence on account of a stress response in his proper femur has been offset by the lack of shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to a bout of shoulder irritation. His absence has destabilized the protection by sending Xander Bogaerts again to the place they moved him off this spring, which with the shift of Cronenworth again to second has pressured the DH-caliber Arraez to play first among the time. The timing of Kim’s return is unclear; in the meantime, Tatis isn’t having something near the sort of season that gained him final yr’s Platinum Glove, and left fielder Jurickson Profar is a specific legal responsibility based mostly on the metrics. Even so, none of this has stopped the Padres from placing collectively the perfect second-half file (40-18, .695) in baseball.