Projecting Seiya Suzuki | FanGraphs Baseball

© Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports activities

Whereas the top of the possession lockout appears increasingly far away after the house owners’ newest proposal to the gamers underwhelmed, in some unspecified time in the future, main league baseball will return. And when it does, there’s a variety of unfinished enterprise remaining earlier than precise video games might be performed; at this level, 56% of the positive projected player WAR in 2022 remains to be obtainable on the free agent market. One distinguished title in that group is outfielder Seiya Suzuki. When groups can discuss to and signal free brokers once more, the four-time Nippon Skilled Baseball All-Star is predicted to attract heavy curiosity and supply an thrilling different to the opposite prime outfielders remaining in the marketplace, comparable to Michael Conforto and Nick Castellanos.

The Hiroshima Toyo Carp might have struggled to get out of the .500 vary in recent times, however Suzuki has offered loads of highlights and one can simply perceive why a participant like him would intrigue groups within the different hemisphere. Final season, his 38 dwelling runs lapped the remainder of his group (Ryosuke Kikuchi was subsequent with 16 dingers), whereas his 1.073 OPS bested all of his teammates by greater than 200 factors; that final quantity additionally led NPB by a major margin. Suzuki will play a lot of the 2022 season as a 27-year-old. Even when he’s not essentially a major enchancment on Conforto or Castellanos, Conforto’s 2021 dimmed his profile considerably and Castellanos is a couple of years older.

After all, earlier than we will assess his match, we should first think about whether or not Suzuki, whose 30-day posting interval was paused by the lockout, will wait out the present labor dispute. When requested about that final month by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, Suzuki indicated that he was ready to be affected person with the delay.

“I’m simply going to attend till either side agree,” stated Suzuki, who arrived in Okinawa final week to conduct exercises on his personal. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t expertise a lockout so it’s a primary for me. At first, I used to be a bit of apprehensive about it. However when you consider it, it’s going to finish someday quickly. Simply having that optimistic mindset that it’s going to finish someday has allowed me to maintain my head up.”

Provided that we now have no particular data to point that he’s modified his thoughts (and on condition that NPB is nearly per week away from exhibition video games), we’ll work underneath the belief that Suzuki will signal with an MLB group in some unspecified time in the future in 2022. And what may that group count on from Suzuki? Clearly, any projection will take among the air out of that lofty OPS. In any case, Tyler Austin and Domingo Santana had been each elite hitters in 2021, and whereas it’s possible that they’ve improved, neither appears destined to turn into a famous person if transplanted again abroad. However the ZiPS translations for Suzuki put him within the .280 to .290 vary in batting common — virtually Wade Boggs in 2020s MLB — with 20-30 homers per yr and an OBP someplace round .350. Translations for NPB aren’t going to be fairly as correct as those for organized baseball over right here, however at this level, we now have a substantial amount of knowledge from the gamers coming backwards and forwards from Japan, significantly greater than we now have for Korea.

Projected in a impartial park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average nook outfielder however one who initiatives beneath All-Star ranges with out one other step ahead:

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, although a few of that wouldn’t be a part of his contract, with a piece as an alternative going to the Carp as a posting payment. (Based mostly on the ZiPS’ projected contract, the posting payment could be about $14 million underneath MLB’s present association with NPB, and I swear, I didn’t change Suzuki’s minimize to $69 million to be able to make that joke.)

And there’s no less than some probability that Suzuki’s deal winds up going even larger for a couple of causes not tied to a inflexible WAR-to-dollars relationship. The free agent roster for outfielders isn’t significantly deep this winter, giving contending groups an actual incentive to be aggressive if that’s the place they need assistance. Additionally, with the now nearly-certain addition of the common designated hitter, 15 Nationwide League groups want to search out 650 plate appearances for a high-offense participant. Not each group has that in-house — interleague play isn’t sufficient to justify NL groups carrying a strong DH — and a league-average nook outfielder or first baseman goes to make a significantly better DH than a league-average catcher or shortstop would. That would end in an actual bonus for Suzuki, together with gamers like Castellanos, Conforto, Nelson Cruz, and Anthony Rizzo, with Rizzo possible pushing an incumbent first baseman to DH. (Freddie Freeman is the plain elite possibility at first base, although he’s already a tier or two above the remainder of the free brokers when it comes to efficiency and wage, so the common DH will most likely present much less of a lift to his eventual deal.)

The place may Suzuki land? He makes a variety of sense for the Boston Purple Sox, so it’s no shock that the rumor mill has repeatedly connected him to the Beantowners. You don’t have to go additional than our Depth Charts to see the knowledge of this for Boston; at the moment, we now have two-thirds of their outfield primarily lined by a mixture of Jackie Bradley Jr., Jarren Duran, Christin Stewart, and Rob Refsnyder. It strikes me as implausible that the Purple Sox received’t make additional additions previous to Opening Day; in the event that they don’t, it’ll be a lot to their remorse in a stacked American League East.

However plenty of groups have had Suzuki buzz and since we don’t know the place he’ll find yourself with any certainty, let’s challenge how all of the groups would enhance with him on the roster. I ran probably the most up-to-date ZiPS simulation 30 occasions, with Suzuki becoming a member of a unique group every time and changing their worst PAs at a nook outfield place or designated hitter:

At the least primarily based on ZiPS’ reckoning, the Philadelphia Phillies get the most important playoff enhance with Suzuki. The Phillies’ outfield scenario is a wreck previous Bryce Harper even earlier than contemplating a common DH. Proper now, they’re projected round .500, making marginal wins fairly invaluable, and in contrast to among the groups close to the highest, there’s zero excuse for the Phillies to faux they will’t afford so as to add him.

ZiPS additionally thinks {that a} Suzuki signing might settle the NL Central. The Cardinals challenge as a powerful offensive group total, however the DH place doesn’t look spectacular. In the meantime, Milwaukee’s offense is nowhere close to as sturdy; they get the most important projected profit after the Phillies. Simply after Milwaukee comes Oakland, however I don’t see the A’s including Suzuki; they’re extra prone to commerce one or each of the Matts than make such a major funding.

Within the NL East, the Mets may faux that their present roster means they don’t want Suzuki, however neither ZiPS nor Steamer is especially impressed with their DH choices. In the meantime, one other offensive place exposes a basic weak spot within the Padres on the corners; the nice three-quarters of the infield can cowl up a variety of sins, however San Diego just isn’t blessed with nice depth on the better facet of the defensive spectrum.

Boston ranks extremely right here, too, with the Blue Jays the opposite AL East group to have a powerful ZiPS argument for Suzuki. The Angels definitely should have an interest given the group’s incapacity to search out secondary expertise after their stars, however they’d do even higher if there was a pitching equal of Suzuki on the market. Persevering with down the record, the Reds should be severely — however they received’t be — and the Tigers’ bump is based on the notion that Detroit makes use of him to supplant Miguel Cabrera, one thing they possible wouldn’t do.

Hopefully, within the subsequent few weeks, we will speculate about the place Suzuki finally ends up slightly than questioning if MLB will let baseball occur. Even with some groups just like the Pirates and Orioles staying out of high-stakes free agent wooing, the week earlier than the lockout was probably the most thrilling weeks I’ve had protecting baseball. Not at all times one thing fancy, simply groups making an attempt to get higher. Seeing what Suzuki can do is among the issues that almost all pursuits me within the coming season and it’s enjoyable to see MLB persevering with to turn into a really worldwide league. However we’ll want the lockout to finish first!