Cooperstown Notebook: The 2024 Progress Report, Part II

Francisco Lindor delivered a intestine punch final night time — or relatively two of them, homering from each side of the plate Wednesday night time at Yankee Stadium and powering the Mets to a 12-3 rout and a four-game sweep of this yr’s Subway Collection. After a gradual begin, the 30-year-old switch-hitting shortstop has been on fireplace since transferring into the leadoff spot in mid-Might. He’s helped the Mets flip their season round, given himself a shot at replicating final yr’s 30-homer, 30-stolen base mixture, and burnished a resumé that may in all probability carry him to Cooperstown at some point.

The Mets already led 3-2 when Lindor got here to bat with one on within the fifth inning. Batting from the left facet towards a scuffling Gerrit Cole, he smoked a 92-mph cutter on the internal fringe of the strike zone, launching a towering shot into the second deck in proper subject to open up a 5-2 lead. With the rating 8-2 within the seventh and two males on, he hit righty towards lefty Caleb Ferguson and crushed a 95-mph middle-middle fastball for a 432-foot three-run homer to left middle:

The homers have been Lindor’s twentieth and twenty first of the season. Paired along with his 20 steals, he’s on tempo to match or prime final yr’s mixture of 31 homers and 31 steals and be a part of Ronald Acuña Jr. as the one energetic gamers with two 30-30 seasons below their belts; Bobby Witt Jr. (18 homers and 23 steals) and José Ramírez (24 homers and 18 steals) might be a part of him as nicely. After batting simply .195/.268/.362 (82 wRC+) by Might 17, primarily whereas hitting second or third, he’s hit .306/.388/.566 (171 wRC+) with 14 homers in 268 PA out of the leadoff spot. The Mets have been 20-24 when supervisor Carlos Mendoza made the transfer, however they’re 33-24 since, half a sport behind the Cardinals (34-24) for the Nationwide League’s finest report. They now occupy the second NL Wild Card spot, and as a substitute of a much-anticipated sell-off forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re prone to be patrons.

Lindor’s gradual begin and .259 batting common — his newest in a string of modest ones — fed into him being left off the All-Star squad for the fourth season in a row, however because of his energy and defensive worth, his 4.9 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR each rank third within the NL. Per ZiPS, he’s projected so as to add one other 2.4 WAR this season. If he does that or comes fairly shut, he’ll surpass 40 bWAR for his seven-year peak — his seven finest seasons at giant, to be used in JAWS calculations — a powerful indicator of future election to the Corridor of Fame. Till last year, I’d by no means performed the mathematics, however with the 2024 Corridor election cycle behind us, over three-quarters of the eligible place gamers with no less than 40.0 WAR of their finest seven seasons are enshrined:

At each place, I’ve counted the entire variety of gamers with a peak WAR of no less than 40.0; the variety of Corridor of Famers assembly that criterion; and the variety of such gamers not but eligible, both as a result of they’re energetic, too lately retired to seem on a poll, or on the completely ineligible listing. The final of these classifications applies to Pete Rose (whom JAWS classifies as a left fielder) and Shoeless Joe Jackson (proper subject). For catchers, I’ve used a 32.0-WAR threshold as a substitute of 40.0, as their values are constrained by the bounds of enjoying time and pre-framing measures. The proportion can be even greater if I have been to account for gamers linked to performance-enhancing medicine, however I’m blissful sufficient to have this three-quarters rule of thumb as it’s.

Ramírez crossed the 40-WAR threshold final yr, whereas Lindor is one in all 4 gamers who ZiPS tasks to take action this yr; Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman, and Marcus Semien are the others, with Carlos Correa having a shot as nicely. Eight different energetic gamers have already reached that threshold.

With that, it’s time to dive into Half II of my annual Corridor of Fame progress report; Half I, protecting pitchers, is here. Except in any other case indicated, all present WAR figures use the Baseball Reference model, which had not been up to date to mirror Wednesday’s video games by the point I filed this, and so all statistics are by Tuesday as nicely besides the place indicated (as in Lindor’s numbers above). All rest-of-season projections use the ZiPS’ Depth Charts model, which includes enjoying time estimates.

Catcher

Realmuto’s 2023 season (.252/.310/.452, 102 wRC+, 1.5 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR) was his worst yr since his 2011 rookie marketing campaign. The 33-year-old backstop is within the midst of one other robust season, batting .259/.315/.403 (102 wRC+) with a career-high 26% strikeout charge, and whereas his Statcast numbers are on par with these from final yr, he’s fallen 44 factors wanting his xSLG, probably as a result of he’s pulling the ball much less. Extra damagingly, after enjoying no less than 130 video games in six out of seven full seasons between 2016–23, he missed six weeks on account of a meniscectomy on his right knee, the longest absence of his profession. He returned to motion simply final Saturday.

Early in his profession, Realmuto was nicely under common as a pitch framer (-31.5 runs by FanGraphs’ methodology in 2015–16), however after bettering to the purpose of being 8.6 runs above common as lately as 2021, he slid to 12.2 runs under common final yr and is at -4.1 this yr. That’s not accounted for in JAWS, the place he ranks 29th, however his total framing numbers (-21.6 FRM) don’t assist him the way in which the numbers for upcoming candidates Buster Posey (128.8 FRM) or Yadier Molina (151.1 FRM, plus one other 30.0 runs per Baseball Prospectus’ methodology for pre-2008 framing) do. With simply three All-Star picks and two Gold Gloves (no small activity in a league with Molina), Realmuto should depend on his bat to make his case for Cooperstown, and proper now I’m not so optimistic he can.

Rightly beloved by Royals followers on condition that he was the MVP of the 2015 World Collection and a foundational piece of the group’s back-to-back pennants, Perez has a resumé topped by 9 All-Star picks and 5 Gold Gloves. That 48-homer season from a pair years in the past turned some heads and began some arguments; he holds the report for many homers in a season by a participant who caught no less than 50% of his video games, which doesn’t equal “the report for house runs by a catcher,” which is 42 by Javier Lopez in 2003, if we’re speaking concerning the strict break up; Perez hit 33 as a catcher and one other 15 in his 40 video games as a DH, which isn’t the identical factor, although it’s nonetheless an ideal season.

The 34-year-old Perez is hitting a strong .279/.340/.472, with a 120 wRC+ and a pair of.1 WAR, that whereas spending much less time behind the plate than standard; he’s acquired a 58-56 edge in video games caught over Freddy Fermin, accompanied by 25 video games at first and 19 at DH. From a price standpoint, his actual drawback is that he’s acquired the second-lowest total of framing runs (-117.2) amongst all catchers since 2008, which is to say that he’s practically 270 runs worse than Molina in that span alone, although nonetheless practically 50 runs forward of poor Ryan Doumit. That knowledge can’t merely be waved away now that now we have it; this isn’t Derek Jeter’s horrible protection offset by 3,465 hits and 5 championships. Perez’s profession Framing-Inclusive JAWS (fJAWS) line, with that knowledge included into his valuation, is simply 17.2 profession fWAR, 14.8 peak fWAR, and 16.0 fJAWS, miles behind the marks of Posey (57.5/47.7/52.6), Molina (58.6/39.5/49.1), and Joe Mauer (56.8/42.4/49.6). It’s additionally miles behind Russell Martin (58.2/39.8/49.0) and Brian McCann (53.4/39.9/46.7), each of whom are possible doomed to be undervalued by voters at the same time as they anoint Molina on the idea of a “repute” that’s fairly nicely supported by these defensive numbers.

First Base

Given his back-to-back seasons of -0.1 WAR, the Reds understandably declined the $20 million membership possibility on the finish of Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal, and after a winter of unemployment, he lastly signed a minor league cope with the Blue Jays. Sadly, he rolled his proper ankle after homering in his solely Grapefruit League plate look, subsequently battled decrease again points, and didn’t start a rehab project till June 15. After hitting simply .186/.321/.326 in 53 PA at two low-level stops, he reinjured his ankle throughout pregame warmups for his debut at Triple-A Buffalo on Friday. So it goes.

Suffice it to say that if the 40-year-old Votto hasn’t reached the tip of the road but, he’s awfully shut. With seven on-base titles, six All-Star picks, a Gold Glove, an MVP award, 2,135 hits, and 356 homers, his counting stats aren’t overwhelming, however he’s cleared the height and JAWS requirements for first basemen, rating ninth within the former class and twelfth within the latter, forward of the just-inducted Todd Helton in each. Throw in his standing as a media favourite, and I believe we’ll see him in Cooperstown quickly sufficient.

Goldschmidt received NL MVP honors as a 34-year-old in 2022, however two seasons later, he’s exhibiting his age. What initially regarded like a particularly slow start was a spot on my latest Replacement Level Killers listing, as he’s hitting a meager .226/.287/.370 (88 wRC+) with 14 homers. His high quality of contact isn’t as dangerous as his numbers counsel (he’s acquired a .446 xSLG, for one factor), however his strikeout charge has spiked practically six share factors to a career-worst 29.2%, and his protection has slipped into the purple.

Even so, Goldschmidt has seven All-Star appearances and 4 Gold Gloves to go along with his MVP award. He’s acquired 354 house runs, and with successful on Wednesday night time is simply two away from the all-important 2,000-hit milestone. He’s 17th in JAWS, useless even with the usual (53.4), and thirteenth in peak rating. I do suppose he’s able to a rebound, however it might nicely come someplace in addition to St. Louis, as he’s a pending free agent. He’s not fairly as much as Helton or Votto both by the standard numbers or the superior ones; I believe he’ll wind up enshrined, however he might actually fortify his possibilities with no less than yet one more stable season earlier than taking over everlasting residence in replacement-level territory.

Suffice it to say that Los Angeles agrees with Freeman. He set a profession excessive in WAR final yr with 6.5, and is projected to surpass 18.0 WAR for his first three seasons in Dodger blue, with these accounting for 3 of his 4 highest single-season WAR marks. On that notice, he’s added 7.0 WAR (and 5.1 JAWS) since I ran although this train a yr in the past. The 34-year-old first baseman simply made his eighth All-Star look and is hitting .288/.394/.495; his slugging share is his lowest mark since 2016, however his 150 wRC+ is the fourth-highest full-season mark of his profession.

In different phrases, Freeman remains to be going sturdy, and with 2,221 hits, he’s acquired a realistic shot at 3,000 in addition to 400 homers (he has 337). His peak isn’t as excessive as these of Goldschmidt or Votto, however he’s nicely forward each when it comes to the Invoice James Hall of Fame Monitor — which dishes out credit score for issues which have tended to sway voters, similar to seasons with 30 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs, careers with a .300 common or higher, awards, league leads in key stats, and playoff appearances — because of all these .300 seasons and his championship; he has 130 factors to Goldschmdit’s 105 and Votto’s 89. He’s poised to succeed in the 40-WAR peak threshold, and by this time subsequent yr, might be across the JAWS commonplace for the place. With that, he’ll possible head into the again half of his 30s extra broadly seen as a future Corridor of Famer than both of these contemporaries — or Helton, for that matter.

Second Base

After struggling a damaged proper thumb within the World Baseball Basic final yr, Altuve performed simply 90 video games, although he wielded a potent bat, hitting for a 154 wRC+. The pint-sized 34-year-old is again all the way down to a extra consultant 129 wRC+ (.304/.350/.452), however not like so lots of his teammates, he’s been wholesome all season, totaling 14 homers and 15 steals in 98 video games. He’s been uncharacteristically free-swinging; his 39% chase charge is over eight share factors forward of final yr and represents his highest mark since his 2011 rookie season. His 5.8% stroll charge is about 5 factors under final yr and is his lowest mark since 2015, whereas his 19.4% strikeout charge is a profession excessive.

Whereas it’s not a typical Altuve season, he’s making progress in direction of Cooperstown. He’s projected to succeed in the 40-WAR peak mark this yr, and would leapfrog 2025 candidates Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler to maneuver into 19th in JAWS if he matches the above projection. He simply made his ninth All-Star group; solely eight second basemen have been chosen extra typically. He’s run his hit complete to 2,170, and eventually test had ZiPS odds for 3,000 that have been greater than any participant beside Freeman. The additional we get from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the much less it appears prone to have an effect on his Corridor possibilities, notably given reports that he rejected the assistance offered by the trash can signaling system. Between that and the absence of latest second basemen who might acquire entry (Kinsler, Pedroia, and twice-suspended Robinson Canó), he’s acquired an open lane to Cooperstown as long as he can keep on the sector.

Like Freeman, Semien has banked 7.0 WAR since final yr’s train, and he’s gotten much more mileage out of it, including 6.1 JAWS. Whereas he’s performed solely 585 video games at second base in comparison with 813 at shortstop, he’s now labeled at this place as a result of he’s been extra invaluable right here.

Semien acquired a relatively late begin for Corridor functions, enjoying simply 85 video games with 1.4 WAR earlier than his age-24 season in 2015, and with three All-Star picks and one Gold Glove, he’s a bit gentle in honors, although after all he took house a World Collection ring final yr, and completed third within the MVP voting for the third time. He’s put himself on the radar by combining spectacular energy (a excessive of 45 homers in 2021, and 55 throughout ’22-23), glorious protection (49 DRS because the begin of 2021), and sturdiness (he performed 161 or extra video games 4 occasions from 2019–23). Because of seasons of 8.5 WAR in 2019, 7.1 in ’21, and an American League-high 7.4 WAR final yr, he’s outproduced everybody besides Mookie Betts (44.5 WAR) and Aaron Judge (40.4 WAR) because the begin of 2019, and is closing in on the 40-WAR peak threshold. He tasks to climb to twenty third within the JAWS rankings this yr, and whereas he nonetheless has work to do, the heaviest lifting is already performed.

Shortstop

Including to what I wrote above, Lindor entered the season second in homers, fourth in steals, and fifth in wRC+ (132) amongst shortstops. By DRS — which is utilized in bWAR — his protection has been merely common, however by Statcast’s FRV, he’s six runs above common; the latter system now values him greater by 50 runs relative to the previous (97-47), and that’s with out Statcast offering fielding knowledge for Lindor’s 2015 rookie season. His 15.7 WAR because the begin of 2022 ranks sixth, behind solely Choose, Betts, Juan Soto, Freeman, and Semien; if he hits his projection, he may have banked 18.1 WAR over these three seasons. Guide this man a spot on subsequent yr’s All-Star group already.

When he’s been accessible this season, Correa has hit .308/.377/.520 for a 152 wRC+, his highest mark since 2017, however he’s performed simply 75 video games, lacking 16 in April on account of an indirect pressure and touchdown on the IL final weekend on account of one other bout of plantar fasciitis. His 346 video games because the begin of 2022 are 76 fewer than Lindor, and he was subpar final season (96 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) whereas enjoying by plantar fasciitis, which helps to clarify the 2 shortstops’ 2.6-point relative swing in JAWS since this time final yr. That mentioned, Correa is 10 months youthful than Lindor, so trailing him at this juncture is hardly inappropriate.

That is already Correa’s seventh-best season by WAR, so he has a shot to succeed in the 40-WAR peak threshold this season if he could make a well timed return and play as much as his capabilities. He’s nonetheless hearing it from some fans concerning the Astros’ sign-stealing, however with present candidate Carlos Beltrán trending in direction of eventual election (he obtained 57.1% in his second yr of eligibility) and Altuve destined to hit the poll years forward of him, Correa most likely received’t be singled out for exclusion from the Corridor primarily based upon his participation within the scheme.

Additionally: Xander Bogaerts is a second baseman now, and after a tough begin to his season, he missed practically eight weeks on account of a left shoulder fracture. To this point he’s acquired 0.1 WAR in his age-31 season, and he’s unlikely to to enhance upon the height rating of his 39.7/34.7/37.2 line this yr; with 4 seasons within the 3.8–4.9 WAR vary, he’ll have his possibilities down the street. Trea Turner (35.7/30.3/33.0), who’s additionally in his age-31 season, missed over six weeks on account of a left hamstring pressure however has recovered as easily as one in all his well-known pop-up slides, hitting a scorching .338/.385/.540 (160 wRC+) and beginning at shortstop for the NL within the All-Star Recreation. He’s solely acquired 2.4 WAR, however something above 3.0 will elevate his peak rating. Corey Seager is aware of loads about missed time and its influence on Corridor circumstances. He set a profession excessive with 6.9 WAR final season regardless of enjoying in simply 119 video games, and received his second World Collection MVP award. As he’s performed in 135 video games or extra simply thrice, there’s a whole lot of slack in his 34.9/30.8/32.9 line; his 3.1 WAR this yr, his age-30 season, is already his sixth-best mark, and he solely wants 3.9 WAR to get to his fourth-best — however he’s going to have to remain wholesome if he actually desires to make tracks in direction of Cooperstown.

I’ll embody the third basemen with the outfielders and unicorns in Half III.