#2 Boston Celtics vs #3 Milwaukee Bucks - Second Round Playoff Series Preview NBA Playoffs

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will meet within the second spherical of the 2022 NBA Playoffs in an Japanese Convention sequence. That is the third time within the final 5 years these two have met within the postseason. The Celtics beat the Bucks within the first spherical in 2018, whereas Milwaukee topped Boston within the second spherical in 2019. The sequence schedule is as follows:

· Recreation 1 – Sunday 5/1 at Boston – 1:00 PM ET – ABC

· Recreation 2 – Tuesday 5/3 at Boston – TBD – TNT

· Recreation 3 – Saturday 5/7 at Milwaukee – TBD – ABC

· Recreation 4 – Monday 5/9 at Milwaukee – TBD – TNT

· Recreation 5* – Wednesday 5/11 at Boston – TNT – *if vital

· Recreation 6* – Friday 5/13 at Milwaukee – ESPN – *if vital

· Recreation 7* – Sunday 5/15 at Boston – TBD – *if vital

Through the common season the groups break up their 4 conferences:

· Boston 122 – Milwaukee 113

· Boston 117 – Milwaukee 103

· Milwaukee 117 – Boston 113

· Milwaukee 127 – Boston 121

Within the first matchup in mid-November, the Bucks had been with out Giannis Antetokounmpo, whereas the Celtics performed with out Jaylen Brown. Dennis Schroder had the most effective video games of his quick Boston tenure with 38 factors.

Within the second matchup a month later, Jayson Tatum scored 42 factors, whereas Grant Williams added 17 off the bench in a Boston win. The Celtics held Antetokounmpo comparatively in test, as he scored simply 20 factors. Khris Middleton was additionally a relative non-factor in a sport that may most-resemble what this sequence may appear to be.

A few weeks later the groups met for a Christmas Day matchup. The Celtics blew a 12-point lead with 5 minutes to play as Antetokounmpo dominated in a Bucks rally. Milwaukee’s star scored 29 of his game-high 36 factors within the second half. Boston was led by 25 factors apiece from Brown and Tatum, whereas Payton Pritchard added 16 off the Celtics bench.

The ultimate matchup noticed Boston sit Jayson Tatum and Al Horford, whereas Robert Williams was out with a torn meniscus. Milwaukee completed the sport on a 9-0 run to win behind 29 factors apiece from Antetokounmpo and Jrue Vacation. Brown put up a triple-double for Boston, who noticed a number of others step up with Tatum and Horford sitting.

Well being Outlook

The Celtics enter this sequence wholesome, with a catch. The group is anticipating Jaylen Brown to be full-go, however Brown is coping with hamstring tightness. He was injured late in Recreation 4, as Boston swept the Brooklyn Nets. Each Brown and Ime Udoka have stated they count on Brown to play, however that the damage may influence him all through the sequence.

Robert Williams is cleared for full minutes and will return again to the beginning lineup. That call lies solely with Udoka, however Williams will play a serious position on this sequence both approach.

On the Bucks aspect, they’ll be with out Khris Middleton. This can be a main blow for Milwaukee, as Middleton is their greatest offensive creator (non-Giannis bulldozer division). His rep as a “Celtics killer” has been a bit overstated. When Middleton has a giant sport in opposition to Boston, it tends to be a BIG sport, which boosts that rep, even when his total numbers in opposition to the Celtics aren’t great. Rep or not, Middleton’s absence goes to influence this sequence vastly.

With out Middleton, the Bucks lose on offense, however in addition they lose a wing defender with measurement. That’s going throw issues into flux a bit on that finish of the ground.

It’s unsure what George Hill’s standing shall be for the sequence. He’s missed appreciable time this season, together with your complete first spherical with a neck damage. Hill was upgraded to questionable by the top of the primary spherical, but it surely’s unclear how shut he truly is to returning.

Beginning Guards

Marcus Sensible and Jaylen Brown vs Jrue Vacation and Wesley Matthews/Grayson Allen

That is the place issues get somewhat bizarre, as a result of it’s unclear who will truly begin subsequent to Jrue Vacation in Milwaukee’s backcourt. Within the Bucks victory over the Chicago Bulls within the first spherical, it was Wesley Matthews, as a result of Mike Budenholzer went with a jumbo-sized frontcourt. For a lot of the common season, when somebody was out of the lineup, the Bucks began Grayson Allen.

Both approach, it is a spot the place the Celtics ought to be capable to make some headway. Vacation is a superb defender, however he can solely guard one participant. It’s extremely doubtless he’ll draw both Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Matthews, who will begin on the wing, will in all probability take the opposite participant.

When Boston has the ball, they should concentrate on entering into the paint. Milwaukee gives paint touches to ballhandlers, due to the best way they guard pick-and-roll actions. It’s going to be as much as Marcus Sensible and Jaylen Brown to be aggressive in attacking that protection.

Brown has develop into midrange pullup shooter, and that shot is there in opposition to the Bucks in drop protection. Sensible tends to eschew the pullup for the floater or a straight rim assault. With Milwaukee’s measurement and size within the paint, Sensible might wish to rethink that strategy. He needs to be prepared to take the ten–20-foot pullup jumper if it’s there.

As well as, it’s going to be arduous for Sensible, or Jayson Tatum, to get into the paint for these over-the-top lobs they like to throw to Rob Williams, Al Horford and Daniel Theis. The Bucks merely don’t enable for that, particularly when Brook Lopez is within the sport. Milwaukee forces the passers to be scorers, or to look to kick the ball out.

One very last thing when the Celtics have the ball: Boston has to concentrate on Vacation serving to on the nail (on the free throw line in the course of the important thing). Brown and Tatum each like to go to spin dribbles there and no participant within the NBA is best at being there for strips and deflections than Vacation is. Discovering him earlier than beginning a dribble transfer is paramount.

When the Bucks have the ball, Vacation’s offensive load is very large with out Khris Middleton. He needs to be Milwaukee main on-ball creator. He can try this, however upping his offensive duty, whereas anticipating All-Protection degree play on the opposite finish is a giant ask.

In contrast to in opposition to Chicago, Vacation isn’t going to have anybody he can bully with back-to-the-basket performs both. Whereas the Bulls all the time had an opposing guard on the ground that Vacation may overpower, the Celtics will hardly ever give the Bucks that type of look. That removes among the offensive units and movement the place Vacation makes one thing taking place from the mid-post space. Boston additionally gained’t ship assist, so Vacation gained’t be capable to discover the kickout passes to the shooters like he did within the first spherical.

If Allen is on the ground, he must benefit from the Celtics aggressive defensive tendencies. Whether or not that’s driving closeouts, drawing fouls or getting the ball shifting as Boston switches and scrambles, Allen has to indicate up. He’s higher off the dribble than most suppose, and he’s secondary or tertiary playmaker.

If Matthews is on the market on offense, he’s a standstill shooter. However he’s one. Matthews excels in lifting to get above the break for kickouts off drives. He’s additionally nice at discovering his spot when Milwaukee performs in transition. Maintaining monitor of Matthews is a key for Boston’s protection.

Benefit: Boston. Jrue Vacation is admittedly good, however Marcus Sensible is enjoying the very best basketball of his profession. That brings that matchup nearer than it might have been in years previous. The distinction is Jaylen Brown vs Wesley Matthews or Grayson Allen. If the Celtics are going to win, and presumably considerably comfortably, Brown has to win that matchup by a large margin. And he’s completely able to it.

Beginning Forwards

Jayson Tatum and Al Horford vs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Wesley Matthews/Bobby Portis

Let’s get this out of the best way first: Giannis Antetokounmpo is undoubtedly the very best participant on this sequence. He could also be the very best participant in your complete NBA.

That stated…Jayson Tatum isn’t miles behind like some might have as soon as thought. Particularly not after he largely dominated his first-round matchup with Kevin Durant.

With that out of the best way, it’s necessary to acknowledge that these two might not guard one another all that usually. Milwaukee doesn’t job Antetokounmpo with guarding the very best opposing wing, besides in key moments. On the opposite finish, Tatum isn’t the very best matchup Boston has for Antetokounmpo both.

This matchup, greater than any, is the place Al Horford’s worth to the Celtics ought to shine brightest. For years, the e-book has been to layoff Antetokounmpo within the halfcourt and hope he shoots. The problem for many groups is that he’ll solely often accept jumpers. As a substitute, Antetokounmpo makes use of that house to create a head of steam as he drives.

That is the place Horford’s measurement comes into play. You need to meet Antetokounmpo within the paint with measurement. Few gamers can transfer their ft, whereas matching Antetokounmpo’s measurement like Horford can. And Horford does that with gamers like Robert Williams or Daniel Theis lurking as assist defenders, or Marcus Sensible and Grant Williams sliding in to take expenses when Antetokounmpo spins.

Very like the backcourt matchup, Antetokounmpo vs Horford is a bonus for the Bucks. However the distinction between Tatum and whoever he matches up with may be very broad.

Tatum is the second-best participant on this sequence, however he’s completely able to being the very best participant. Like Brown, Tatum must win his matchups by a large margin. Sure, he’ll draw Antetokounmpo in some eventualities, largely end-game ones, however in opposition to some other Buck, he ought to be capable to rating. And when Milwaukee sends assist. Tatum will dime up shooters and cutters.

If Milwaukee goes massive, search for Tatum to assault repeatedly off the bounce. If Matthews is tasked with guarding Tatum, he’ll work within the mid-post space, equally to how he did in opposition to Bruce Brown within the first spherical. Or he’ll merely catch and shooter over the smaller defender.

Additionally, search for much less Tatum-Brown pick-and-roll actions, because the Bucks will in all probability simply swap these. As a substitute, search for Tatum to work extra with Marcus Sensible to choose up whoever is guarding Sensible on the switches. And, count on a heavy dose of Tatum working the display screen sport with whichever massive Brook Lopez is guarding. If the Bucks follow their most popular drop protection in opposition to these appears to be like, Tatum will stroll into pullup jumper after pullup jumper till the defensive modifications techniques or personnel.

When Milwaukee has the ball, Matthews or Portis will stay on the arc, with the latter often diving in on cuts as Antetokounmpo or Jrue Vacation drive. Boston will sag off and dare Antetokounmpo to shoot or to drive, whereas setting a wall of massive our bodies and lengthy limbs to guard in opposition to the basket.

Additionally, be ready for loads of free throws. Not solely will Antetokounmpo drive it, however the Celtics can even fortunately give a foul to forestall a layup or dunk. And Boston’s smalls, primarily Marcus Sensible, Derrick White and Grant Williams, will try to take many, many expenses all through this sequence. Even when they solely have marginal success, it is going to be price it.

Antetokounmpo is the first concern of the Bucks beginning forwards, however we don’t wish to decrease Portis or Matthews both. We lined Matthews’ sport within the guard part, and Portis is known as a greater model of Matthews at this level. Someplace between a 3rd and half of Portis’ photographs will come from behind the arc. And the remainder come within the paint or on the rim, with the occasional mid-ranger labored in.

Like within the backcourt, that is the place Middleton’s versatility shall be missed. He’d drive Tatum or Brown to have to protect him. Now, Boston can extra aggressively ship spot-help. They gained’t double Antetokounmpo on the catch on each journey, however they’ll do it generally, hoping their bottom rotations are on-point to maintain Portis or Matthews from getting wide-open appears to be like.

Benefit: Boston. If Khris Middleton had been enjoying, this might have been benefit Bucks. Because it stands, Jayson Tatum isn’t all that far off Giannis Antetokounmpo when it comes to what they’ll produce on this sequence on each ends. The distinction is that Al Horford is best than both Bobby Portis or Wesley Matthews. One key to that? Horford has to make his open three-pointers. He was down at 33.6% from behind the arc for the common season. However since 2022 began, Horford has hit 37.5% from deep, and he knocked down 9-of-15 triples within the first spherical.

Beginning Middle

Robert Williams vs Brook Lopez

That is assuming Ime Udoka both returns to Robert Williams within the beginning group for Recreation 1 or in some unspecified time in the future within the sequence. Assuming Williams has his wind again, and his timing/rhythm is nice, he’ll doubtless get his beginning position again.

In that case, this provides Boston a giant athletic enhance. Williams will hardly ever begin possessions guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo, however he’ll continuously be lurking as a assist defender. If the remainder of the Celtics can occupy Antetokounmpo as he drives, search for Williams to be the one who is available in to hassle the shot because it goes up.

On offense, Williams will have to be robust as a screener. The Bucks want to drop Brook Lopez again in coverages. If their guards and wings can battle over the screens, it takes away the ballhandlers potential to get into the paint or to get to their pullup. Williams must battle his pure urge to slide screens for lobs, as a result of Milwaukee merely gained’t be pressed up that prime to permit it anyway.

On the uncommon events when Milwaukee permits an offensive rebound (the Bucks are the most effective rebounding groups within the NBA), Williams will in all probability be concerned. And he’ll have to complete these uncommon second possibilities.

On the opposite finish of the ground, Lopez goes to need to be an offensive weapon for the Bucks to win. He’s three-point shooter, so Williams, or Daniel Theis, gained’t be capable to wander too removed from him. And a lot of the different Celtics merely don’t have the dimensions to hassle Lopez’s shot in rotations.

The opposite factor to look at with Khris Middleton out, is Milwaukee went to numerous straight post-up performs for Lopez. Defending the put up has been a problem for Williams at occasions, as a result of he’ll chew on fakes. If Antetokounmpo is on the bench, or wants a possession to breathe, search for the Bucks to get Lopez within the put up for scoring alternatives.

Benefit: Milwaukee. That is shut, however Brook Lopez’s potential on each ends of the ground is so key for the Bucks. If the Celtics are capable of choose on Lopez in drop protection, that’s much less concerning the middle matchup than a schematic factor. It’s going to be actually key for Robert Williams or Daniel Theis to play solidly and keep away from selecting up fouls, particularly when Lopez is within the put up. And so they can’t get overly occupied with serving to on Giannis Antetokounmpo drives that they drift too far off Lopez on the arc both.

Reserves

Derrick White, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard and Daniel Theis vs Bobby Portis/Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Jevon Carter and Serge Ibaka

Each Boston and Milwaukee have lower all the way down to eight or nine-man rotations. Primarily, the filler minutes which you can get away with within the common season are gone. Each Ime Udoka and Mike Budenholzer are working with the fellows they’ll belief.

The Celtics will run with Derrick White enjoying as the first backup wing, Grant Williams as the first backup massive and Payton Pritchard will get 10-Quarter-hour behind Marcus Sensible. As a result of Robert Williams continues to be working his approach again from damage, and he’s more likely to choose up some fouls, count on Daniel Theis to get at the least 8-10 minutes of run too.

Whoever doesn’t begin for the Bucks out of Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen, will play quite a bit off the bench. Pat Connaughton will get his normal 20-25 minutes too. And Jevon Carter will play 10-Quarter-hour behind Jrue Vacation, until George Hill is prepared, then he’ll choose up a few of that point too. If any of the Bucks three bigs (Portis, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Brook Lopez) will get into foul hassle, Serge Ibaka will see some minutes.

With enjoying time comparatively even, it turns into about manufacturing from the bench. Portis will in all probability rating probably the most, whereas Allen and Connaughton are able to massive capturing video games. White is the very best defender of the group, with Williams not far behind. These matchups are more likely to cancel one another out.

The important thing for the Celtics shall be for Pritchard to outplay both Carter or Hill. And he’s bought a weapon that needs to be large on this sequence: the pullup jumper. Pritchard is arguably Boston’s greatest pullup shooter not named Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown is much-improved, however Pritchard’s pullup is cash.

In years previous, the Celtics bought a ton of mileage out of attacking Lopez in drop protection with Kemba Walker drilling midrange pullup jumpers. Search for that to get damaged again out, however with Pritchard enjoying the Walker position. This can be a sequence the place he may have a number of massive scoring video games, regardless of enjoying considerably minimal minutes.

Benefit: Even. Grant Williams and Bobby Portis each supply good protection and well timed exterior capturing. If Derrick White was making photographs, it might tip Boston’s approach. However White has shot simply 40.9% with the Celtics, and 30.6% from three. Within the first spherical, that dipped all the way down to 34.8% and 9.1% from behind the arc. White’s protection and playmaking are keys for the Celtics, however Payton Pritchard often is the extra logical selection for giant backup guard minutes on this sequence. As for Allen and Connaughton, the Celtics have to remain hooked up and run them off the arc. That’s the purpose to maintain them in test.

Teaching

Ime Udoka vs Mike Budenholzer

The e-book on Mike Budenholzer was that that after you discovered assault his protection and sluggish his offense, the sequence was over. He was often called the coach who was most reluctant to regulate his schemes or personnel.

That’s gone now. Budenholzer did a beautiful job all through final season’s title run of fixing when vital. No, he doesn’t have a ton of latest wrinkles deliberate to start out a sequence or something, however Budenholzer is much much less inflexible about adapting and altering issues up than he was.

Ime Udoka had an awesome baptism underneath fireplace within the first spherical. His defensive schemes in opposition to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving labored nice. Offensively, Udoka went to some stuff Boston hadn’t finished numerous, like small-small pick-and-roll performs and a few inverse spacing stuff with the wings working from the put up. He additionally tweaked some lineups and pushed minutes for his most important guys.

Benefit: Milwaukee. You may’t choose in opposition to a championship degree coach when the opposite man has solely gained one sequence. However this additionally isn’t some type of big mismatch both. The hot button is for Ime Udoka to have one thing ready for Giannis Antetokounmpo that he hasn’t seen earlier than. That’s very true with Khris Middleton out. From there, it’s about forcing the Bucks to regulate from their base schemes. And with out Middleton, Budenholzer goes to need to get actually artistic to determine what to go to, if the Celtics drive them away from their most popular stuff.

Prediction

Celtics in 5 video games.

Within the first spherical, this house actually, actually wished to choose Boston to beat Brooklyn in 5 video games, however bought scared off by the greatness of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

That isn’t going to occur once more.

If Khris Middleton was enjoying, the choose would have been Celtics in seven. Homecourt benefit issues that a lot. However after watching Boston dismantle a Brooklyn offense with extra firepower than Milwaukee has, the boldness is flowing in the direction of the Celtics.

Giannis Antetokounmpo should still end because the sequence MVP. He may common one thing like a 40/15/7 line, however the place is the remainder of the assistance coming from? That’s the place the Celtics get you. One man isn’t sufficient, because the Nets came upon. And if that one man will be at the least semi-contained, then it’s actually not sufficient.

Boston is uniquely geared up to make life arduous on Antetokounmpo, as a result of they’ve defenders with measurement that may transfer their ft. And their wings and guards are prepared to step in and take successful too. It’s additionally crucial that the Celtics win any non-Antetokounmpo minutes. There aren’t going to be lots of them, however profitable them shall be large from sport to sport.

The Celtics even have to search out methods to choose on the Bucks protection. Whether or not that’s in opposition to the scheme (Brook Lopez in drop protection) or in opposition to weaker defenders like Grayson Allen or Pat Connaughton, Boston has to win these battles decisively.

This one might play out quite a bit just like the Nets sequence. Shut video games, battles till the top, however extra rock fights than shootouts. However the Celtics have extra depth, and higher matchups for and in opposition to the Bucks. That’ll be the distinction as Boston will get to the Japanese Convention Finals.

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