Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/24

[ad_1]

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hey all people, welcome to the chat

2:01	Ben Clemens: Let’s simply dive proper in

2:02	Scratch: What main change to baseball may have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so on)?

2:02	Ben Clemens: Variety of fielders, possibly? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, after all

2:02	Visitor: Who would you slightly guess on panning out? A prospect who must decrease his Ok fee by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB fee by 5-10%?

2:03

Ben Clemens: It will depend on different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly favor the man who hits too many grounders. Examine after examine exhibits that hitters who’re hanging out a ton within the low minors simply can not play on the main league degree generally

2:03	Ben Clemens: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout fee. However actually, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ will depend on what degree all else is equal at

2:03	Mike: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “We’ve an possession group able to pay billions for an enlargement crew AND town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?

2:03	Ben Clemens: surprisingly, I don’t assume so

2:04	Ben Clemens: I simply assume the journey could be too onerous

2:05

Ben Clemens: They clearly perceive how powerful it’s the method they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play quick sequence. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each sequence could possibly be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some kind

2:05	Ben Clemens: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about truly placing a crew there completely

2:05	Teaberry: Appears secure to imagine the Phillies are a playoff crew this yr. What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff sport vs a proper handed pitcher?

2:06	Ben Clemens: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl

2:07	Ben Clemens: I can not think about Castellanos within the subject given how he’s taking part in

2:07	Ben Clemens: I do know that they’re speaking about taking part in Sosa within the outfield too at occasions, so possibly you may have him over Dahl or Rojas?

2:08	Braves: What do you assume is inflicting the Braves’ YOY house run decline? Their barrel fee/arduous hit remains to be glorious however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this degree out or is there one thing systemic?

2:08	Ben Clemens: I feel a few of it’s gonna degree out, although a few of it’s that they have been unsustainably sizzling final yr

2:08	Ben Clemens: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the yr

2:08

Brian: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the influence a number of subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who offered however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have a much bigger influence than particular person gamers.

2:09	Ben Clemens: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:

2:09	Ben Clemens: However I seemed into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, they usually carry out worse than you’d count on based mostly on a Depth Charts rendering of their ability degree

2:10	Brian: How would you assume a Gunnar extension would examine to Witt’s or Riley’s?

2:10	Ben Clemens: I feel it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ accomplished a deep dive to get extra exact than that

2:10	Visitor: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so on.–might this be essentially the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Nicely, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even for those who don’t), sure

2:11	Ben Clemens: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman

2:11	Ben Clemens: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s a much bigger star than anybody listed her

2:11	Ben Clemens: but when all these guys went, positive

2:11	Ben Clemens: I do assume that the Jays are gonna have quite a bit to say about how the commerce deadline goes

2:12	Ben Clemens: and the White Sox possibly too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a bundle larger than what WAS acquired for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which for my part makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect

2:12	Ben Clemens: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds glorious

2:13	Ben Clemens: Alternatively…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23

2:13	Ben Clemens: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} crew would provide that a lot

2:13	Derek: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis function?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis function is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’

2:15	Ben Clemens: for those who have a look at his previous few weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor

2:15	Ben Clemens: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan

2:16	Ben Clemens: it’s simply break up all over

2:16

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you get pleasure from watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched a number of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, for those who might watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it have been a tennis match, which means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics might be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.

2:16	Ben Clemens: Oh man, what a match yesterday

2:16	Ben Clemens: I missed the ladies’s remaining, but it surely seems that was fantastic b/c Swiatek is simply too good

2:16	Ben Clemens: however the males’s remaining was nice

2:17	Ben Clemens: deGrom is half of mine for positive

2:17	Ben Clemens: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil

2:17	Ben Clemens: I by no means acquired to see Willie Mays play so he’s in all probability my decide although

2:17	Ben Clemens: or possibly you do one per period

2:17	Ben Clemens: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd

2:17	Nick Gonzales: Am I on a sizzling streak or have I figured some issues out?

2:17	Ben Clemens: por que no los dos?

2:18	Ben Clemens: I’m endlessly gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary faculty baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the perfect hitter in a technology (sure, my park components may need been off)

2:20	Ben Clemens: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact sizzling streak, however that his method of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice

2:20	Ben Clemens: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase fee somewhat, which makes me assume a tailwind in walks and favorable counts might offset a babip slide

2:20	Nate: Implausible enhancements to the participant pages – go alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!

2:20	Ben Clemens: I’ve allow them to know

2:21	Ben Clemens: and yeah it’s nice!

2:21	Princess Leia: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope! Nicely, aside from Aaron Decide… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that hunch.

2:21

Jeremy: Looks like groups which can be successful usually persist with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m considering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies for example, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to successful groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal acquire in not-especially-valuable wins not be definitely worth the potential clubhouse disruption?

2:21	Ben Clemens: This can be a actually arduous query

2:22	Ben Clemens: I feel that generally groups would in all probability be higher off in the event that they moved on sooner than they really do, however much less rapidly than followers assume they need to

2:22	Ben Clemens: The rationale for that’s {that a} false constructive right here hurts extra

2:22	Ben Clemens: like, transferring somebody once they weren’t truly cooked

2:22	MagicOriole: Is Mike Elias the perfect GM in MLB? If not, who’s?

2:22	Ben Clemens: I’ve to present it to Alex Anthopoulos

2:23	Ben Clemens: I imply, full respect to Elias

2:23	Ben Clemens: I’ve written a TON about O’s choice making prior to now two years becuase they’ve had a number of fascinating selections

2:23	Ben Clemens: and whereas Elias and co in all probability began out as being somewhat too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably

2:23	Ben Clemens: clearly, their dev/acquisition crew is unbelievable as effectively

2:24	Ben Clemens: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. But it surely’s simply arduous to knock what the Braves maintain doing

2:24	Visitor: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t have a selected reply, however 50 years is a very long time

2:24	Tigers fan: Tatis Jr. has been trying higher these days…do you assume he ever will get again to 2021 kind?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable

2:24	Ben Clemens: the man is only a spectacular athlete

2:25	Ben Clemens: i don’t assume he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t assume anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation

2:25	Ben Clemens: however by way of being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and glorious protection/baserunning to go together with it, sure

2:25	Smiling Politely: Is it lifelike to presume that Alonso may be satisfactory in a nook OF and subsequently have much more TV to contenders?

2:25	Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, however no

2:26	Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase that he might deal with a nook outfield spot

2:26	Ben Clemens: a)it’d should be left, b)I nonetheless assume it’d be Hoskins-esque

2:26	Visitor: What do you assume has been the perfect free agent contract of greater than 100 million? Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m positive I’m forgetting some good candidates.

2:27	Ben Clemens: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is unquestionably within the working. A Rod and Harper are good ones

2:27	Ben Clemens: I’m trying by way of an inventory proper now

2:28	Ben Clemens: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer in all probability will get my vote for the general greatest

2:28	TPham: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.

2:29	Ben Clemens:

2:29	Shota Imanaga: SHOTA. IMANAGA.

2:29	Phil: If gamers underneath 5’7″ acquired an additional strike, would Altuve be the perfect participant in baseball?

2:29	M’s Fan: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna develop into extra beneficial because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?

2:29	Ben Clemens: A bit. However I feel pitchers may even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, mainly simply specialize extra

2:29	Ben Clemens: so their predominant edge might be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less

2:29	bosoxforlife: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?

2:30	Ben Clemens: I feel the O’s will find yourself successful it, truly, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters

2:30	Colton: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the perfect hitter in a technology out of school as effectively haha

2:30	Ben Clemens: I imply his stats have been so outrageous that even if you alter for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they have been nonetheless otherworldly

2:30	bosoxforlife: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.

2:30	Ben Clemens: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t wish to watch this

2:30	Visitor: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a yr, together with all his time in school. Would that meaningfully cut back his commerce worth for a contender seeking to purchase him this yr?

2:32	Jon Lester: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….

2:32	Jeremy: Re: greatest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally trying good to this point.

2:32	Visitor: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?

2:32	SpicieBoy: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat

2:32	Ben Clemens: boy, I truly don’t know if I can repair that

2:32	Visitor: So, Ben… are you continue to apprehensive about Jose Ramirez?

2:33	Ben Clemens: as an alternative, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel

2:34	Visitor: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the perfect likelihood to dethrone one in all them?

2:35	Ben Clemens: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?

2:35	Ben Clemens: somebody might get sizzling within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t title

2:35	Nic: So Aaron Decide…. how is that this potential? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+) once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this degree of hitter? Is he the perfect since Bonds?

2:35	Ben Clemens: So, I’m doing a undertaking for tomorrow the place I graph totally different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle

2:35	Ben Clemens: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so on.

2:35	Ben Clemens: Decide’s graph is simply ludicrous

2:36	Ben Clemens: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air

2:36	Ben Clemens: what a monswer

2:36	KM: Do you assume Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 sport energy grade? He’s solely 22 but it surely simply looks as if he can by no means raise the ball.

2:37	Ben Clemens: nah, I don’t. I do actually assume he has 80 uncooked although

2:37

Visitor: I’ve been occupied with your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to count on a lot from them. I imply I’m positive there are at all times counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 exhibits that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise

Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs acquired the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was taking part in effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had a number of good prospects on the time)

Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski under the caliber of prospects you have been contemplating?

Additionally in all probability price noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so might dissuade comparable habits from different groups

2:38	Ben Clemens: Wesneski was undoubtedly under the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time

2:38	Ben Clemens: I’m trying over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction

2:38	Ben Clemens: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system

2:39	Ben Clemens: so like, possibly I’m utilizing the improper prospect grades? However I feel that groups actually discounted Yankee arms who immediately gained velo after being drafted

2:39	Champdo: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?

2:39	Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so

2:39	Ben Clemens: When are you planning on being good for those who maintain buying and selling your good gamers?

2:39

I need my child again child again child again: if the jays find yourself truly buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Making an attempt to determine who in rivalry wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?

2:40	Ben Clemens: I undoubtedly assume that they’re taking part in him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t assume an enormous deal is gonna get accomplished, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that beneficial on the deadline

2:40	Ben Clemens: so there’s this bizarre state of affairs the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ could be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers

2:41	bosoxforlife: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the degree he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a sort of lifetime achievement award.

2:41	Ben Clemens: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis

2:41	Ben Clemens: it’s loopy that he by no means received it

2:41	New Yanks velo: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?

2:42

Ben Clemens: Simply that a number of these guys haven’t seemed almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an important job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they acquired Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, roughly

2:42	Ben Clemens: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears

2:42	Ben Clemens: they did the identical for Soto

2:43	Ben Clemens: and I feel in a number of these instances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d count on, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’

2:43	Visitor: Ben, how outdated is the pre sport win likelihood mannequin as proven within the Reside Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to boost predictions?

2:44	Ben Clemens: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based mostly on the posted sport lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)

2:44	Large Reem: Wheeler needs to be proper behind Scherzer on the perfect free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his title talked about

2:44	Ben Clemens: Just a few different individuals pointed him out, and yeah

2:44	Ben Clemens: he undoubtedly counts

2:44	Visitor: If Scherzer is the perfect free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.

2:45	Ben Clemens: Oh, absolutely not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly acquired a number of insurance coverage funds again

2:45	Seiya ain’t So: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump? Each time he seems to be like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth. The protection has been inconsistent. What’s your tackle his future?

2:45	Ben Clemens: man…. I nonetheless assume he’ll

2:45	Ben Clemens: regardless of having been improper about this particular factor many occasions

2:45	Ben Clemens: I completely consider in Seiya

2:46	Ben Clemens: and he seemed like he figured all of it out on the finish of final yr, after which nope

2:46	Ben Clemens: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that

2:46	Ben Clemens: however I believed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant drawback

2:46	Ben Clemens: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, mainly

2:46	Farhandrew Zaidman: leaguewide OPS common is under 700….time to panic or not but?

2:46	Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m panicking

2:46	Ben Clemens: baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs

2:47	SpicieBoy: I believed the Nats have been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract because of his harm historical past

2:47	nats fan: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past

2:47	Ben Clemens: effectively that makes it worse!

2:48

Visitor: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting could possibly be probably very flawed. The method of accounting for the precise variety of PA’s awarded to every crew based mostly upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting crew goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single sport towards a under common pitching crew than their season common), this stuff trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any thought you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?

2:48	Ben Clemens: Let’s simply say that’s low on our record, the location has had a ton of cool enhancements lately however I feel revamping our sport odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them they usually do alright) so as to add somewhat isn’t highest precedence

2:48	Ben Clemens: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a typically helper

2:48	Ben Clemens: however I’d guess there are a lot of issues we’d repair earlier than that

2:49	SpicieBoy: Unironically I need MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we have been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a extremely enjoyable time for baseball

2:49	Plate self-discipline metrics: Is there a abstract someplace on the location of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch data/SIS)?

2:49	Plate self-discipline metrics: can there be a abstract of the totally different sources of plate disciple metrics

2:49	Ben Clemens: There isn’t however I may give you one right here

2:49	Ben Clemens: they measure the strike zone barely otherwise

2:49	Ben Clemens: that’s the entire totally different

2:50	London Calling: % likelihood Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most definitely to get him?

2:50	Ben Clemens: I simply have it very low

2:50	Plate self-discipline metrics: thanks for answering my butchered query. Is another correct? SIS zone appears waaaay totally different

2:50	Ben Clemens: I dunno, actually! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c typically I’m pulling information straight from Savant

2:50	Farhandrew Zaidman: i’ve seen a conspiracy idea that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far

2:51	Ben Clemens: I might completely see that

2:52	I need my child again child again child again: Concerning the low league large OPS, what are your most well-liked approaches/strategies on learn how to enhance it?

2:53	Ben Clemens: I need extra energetic baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier sport

2:53	New Yanks velo: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats acquired little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)

2:53

SpicieBoy: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so on) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re meant to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re truly typically much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks as if an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would inform you would truly occurred, a extremely unhealthy mannequin would don’t have any foundation in actuality). That looks as if a number of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re truly helpful. I additionally take excessive difficulty with some fee stats (like barrel%) being offered as per BBE as an alternative of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who lower their Ok% for sometimes weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA

2:54	Ben Clemens: Dan did one thing on this

2:54	bosoxforlife: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All have been excellent!

2:54	Ben Clemens: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday

2:54	Ben Clemens: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad they usually have been abysmal

2:54	Decide: “baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs”: And it turned private for me (notice: that is what Jordan truly mentioned)

2:54	Ben Clemens:

2:55	Ben Clemens: alright, I’m performing some caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll speak to you once more subsequent week

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

[ad_2]

Source link