Strickland vs. Costa: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 302

Final Combating Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders, Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa, will collide this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Heart in Newark, New Jersey.

Lower than a yr in the past, Strickland did the impossible, escaping UFC Apex to dethrone Israel Adesanya … on short-notice circumstances. He turned a star over evening — in a weird, Strickland-y sort of way — but lost his title almost immediately. Fortuitously, with a victory right here, Strickland is again within the combine, lined up properly for big rematches with both Adesanya or Du Plessis.

Costa, in the meantime, placed on his best performance in recent memory in opposition to Robert Whittaker, nevertheless it wasn’t sufficient to defeat the veteran Aussie. It’s good to see the Brazilian preventing extra actively after negotiating a new contract, however Costa has to get again within the win column if he’s to stay atop Middleweight.

Let’s take a better take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Photograph by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Photographs

Strickland vs. Costa Betting Odds

• Sean Strickland victory: -260
• Sean Strickland through TKO/KO/DQ: +150
• Sean Strickland through submission: +1200
• Sean Strickland through resolution: +200
• Paulo Costa victory: +185
• Paulo Costa through TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Paulo Costa through submission: +2500
• Paulo Costa through resolution: +800
• Draw: +5000
• Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Strickland Wins

Strickland is without doubt one of the finest defensive fighters within the sport, the uncommon blended martial arts (MMA) fighter really comfy standing within the pocket and parrying off pictures. He combines that consolation with a excessive work fee and sharp jab, although Strickland has confronted criticism for failing to construct past these instruments.

On this match up, Strickland has to make sure the jab is the distinction maker. No person is wrestling right here — it’ll be a kickboxing match. If Strickland can’t set up his jab, he’s going to finish up caught on the fence, consuming physique pictures — not a enjoyable place to be in opposition to “Borrachinha.”

Fortuitously, Costa’s face tends to be a magnet for jabs. Between his jabs and teeps, Strickland ought to have the ability to make pressuring tough. As quickly as Costa is a little more hesitant to step ahead, Strickland can look to take the initiative himself and begin shifting Costa backward. If Strickland actually needs to make an announcement and leapfrog the Khamzat vs. Whittaker winner, he can also wish to begin following that jab along with his proper hand.

How Costa Wins

Costa is a marauder. He’s finest identified for bullying his opponents, herding them to the fence with kicks and mixtures then unleashing towards the mid-section. He’s totally able to tanking his foe’s counter fireplace, and in his final bout, Costa confirmed an improved jab.

Costa did some good issues in opposition to Whittaker, most notably that quick snappy jab. Nonetheless, he made a tactical error, attempting to out-slick the previous champion at distance quite than stress. It almost resulted within the wheel kick knockout, however over time, Whittaker proved himself superior in that vary.

To defeat Strickland, Costa has so as to add his new instruments into his outdated gameplan. He’s not going to outbox Strickland within the open, however a quick jab may also help him maneuver Strickland towards the fence. That may at all times be the place Costa is most harmful, and he stands his finest shot at breaking via Strickland’s defenses there.

Physique work is a big side of Costa’s sport, and it ought to completely be an enormous focus right here. Dricus Du Plessis did an amazing job of kicking via Strickland’s defenses — Strickland was feeling these blocked and checked kicks, and it wore him down. Costa can do the identical along with his highly effective kicking sport, however he can broaden upon the attritional harm with plenty of rib roasting hooks.

Strickland vs. Costa Prediction

I see virtually zero likelihood this struggle doesn’t find yourself a really aggressive, 25-minute struggle. That’s traditionally what occurs once you pair Strickland up with a extra highly effective, however much less fairly striker (like Jared Cannonier and Du Plessis). Strickland is nice sufficient to win exchanges, however he’s additionally the smaller puncher, which could be a exhausting promote for the judges.

At this level, we all know exceedingly properly what Strickland brings to the desk and shouldn’t count on a lot totally different. The query is whether or not Costa can put all of it collectively? Between his physique work, quantity and athleticism, “Borrachinha” has all of the instruments essential to win rounds and shift the harm in his favor.

Betting on a wise exhibiting from Costa is a chance to say the least, however I believe he’s shifting in the correct course. Strickland isn’t almost as cell as Whittaker — or pretty much as good typically — that means Costa might be extra simply capable of finding the pocket and let his mixtures fly.

Prediction: Costa through resolution (+800)

LIVE! Watch UFC 302 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

’GARDEN STATE’ SHOWDOWN! Final Combating Championship (UFC) returns to Prudential Heart in Newark, N.J., on Sat., June 1, 2024, that includes Light-weight champion, Islam Makhachev, locking horns with 155-pound legend and No. 4-seeded contender, Dustin Poirier, within the pay-per-view (PPV) most important occasion of the night. UFC 302’s co-headliner options an action-packed, 185-pound scrap between No. 1-ranked contender, Sean Strickland, squaring off with Brazilian beefcake, Paulo Costa, in a five-round particular attraction. UFC 302’s PPV most important card (see it here) can even function Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk, Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov and a lot extra. It’s must-watch motion! UFC 302 begin time scheduled for 6:15 p.m. ET (Prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the whole UFC 302 fight card proper here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6:15 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) most important card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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