Whomps per Whiff, Early 2024 Edition

On Saturday, Tyler Stephenson stepped to the plate within the backside of the primary with the bases loaded. He obtained a pitch to hit from Angels starter Patrick Sandoval, a middle-high sinker. Stephenson was late on it, however he’s sturdy sufficient that he managed to muscle it over the proper area fence anyway for an reverse area grand slam.

Stephenson is off to a slow-ish begin this 12 months. In 18 video games and 58 plate appearances, he’s batting .200/.293/.420. However a more in-depth look reveals that he’s been the sufferer of some atrociously unhealthy luck. Practically 1 / 4 of his batted balls have been barrels, or batted balls which can be struck exhausting sufficient, and at useful sufficient angles that they produce extra-base hits as a rule. Stephenson is 229th in plate appearances and twelfth in barrels leaguewide.

There’s extra excellent news on the Stephenson entrance. Final season, he struck out 26.1% of the time and ran the very best swinging strike charge of his profession. He’s at all times had a reasonably good batting eye, however he made much less contact than ever and paid for it in strikeouts. It’s nonetheless early this 12 months, after all, however he’s making far more contact per swing and swinging much less usually. He’s strolling greater than ever, and his strikeouts have ticked again right down to a extra manageable 24.1%, although in solely 58 plate appearances there’s loads of uncertainty nonetheless.

Why am I bringing this up? As a result of Stephenson leads the majors in whomps per whiff, and taking a look at that leaderboard helps me perceive who’s beginning the 2024 season scorching. As a refresher, this quite simple stat is a ratio of barrels to whiffs. It’s a crude however efficient means of measuring the ability/contact tradeoff, and the most effective 5 hitters of the Statcast period by this metric are, so as: Yordan Alvarez, David Ortiz, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Juan Soto. I’ve to confess, I didn’t count on Stephenson on the prime of the 2024 leaderboard. However even with him there, this appears to be like like a compilation of the easiest hitters in baseball this 12 months, plus a couple of intriguing interlopers:

Earlier than we get into the specifics of the listing, a fast reminder from my introductory article. Above .300 is unbelievable. Above .200 remains to be elite; solely 23 gamers in baseball had been at .200 or increased in 2023. League common is within the .115-.120 vary, and beneath .100 is fairly unhealthy. Austin Hedges checked in at .009 final 12 months, worst in baseball amongst gamers who barreled up at the very least one batted ball. The entire guys on the leaderboard above have a stellar whomps per whiff, which is sensible on condition that pattern sizes are nonetheless small; by the top of the 12 months, solely three gamers sustained a mark above .300 final 12 months, and there’ll absolutely be the same fall-off this 12 months as effectively. Now, let’s speak about some boppers.

Alvarez is off to a stable begin even by his requirements. He’s reduce his strikeout charge almost in half whereas persevering with to pummel the ball to all fields. He’s swung and missed solely 26 occasions this 12 months; 214 gamers have whiffed extra usually, whereas solely 13 have extra plate appearances. In the meantime, he’s barreled the ball 13 occasions already, tied for fourth most within the majors. That’s downright freakish. Shohei Ohtani, who leads baseball with 16 barrels, has swung and missed twice as usually as Alvarez. It’s simply almost unattainable to mix energy and get in touch with the best way Yordan does.

Practically unattainable, not unattainable. Soto, like Alvarez and Ohtani, has an inexpensive declare to the title of greatest hitter on the planet. Thus far this 12 months, he’s completely on fireplace. He’s strolling 18.4% of the time and placing out 11.7% of the time, He’s swinging much less often at balls and extra often at pitches he can drive. And he’s driving them with authority. He’s posting his highest hard-hit, barrel, and fly ball charges of his already-illustrious profession, and he’s additionally hit his third-hardest batted ball ever.

You’ve in all probability heard of how well Tyler O’Neill has started. You won’t have heard about Ryan O’Hearn, although, as a result of he has too many well-known teammates. Whereas the newborn birds and the other baby birds steal all of the headlines, O’Hearn has been mashing within the shadows. I’m speaking Mashing with a capital M; O’Hearn leads the majors in xwOBA, Statcast’s measure of total manufacturing that replaces outcomes on contact with anticipated outcomes based mostly on exit velocity and launch angle.

His batted ball high quality has been outrageously good thus far, and he’s additionally slashed his chase charge whereas nonetheless going after the pitches he is aware of he can drive. That’s the way you concurrently double your stroll charge and halve your strikeout charge. The Orioles lineup is deep even when some hitters are struggling. When the complementary gamers like O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle (.206 whomps per whiff, fortieth in baseball) are hitting as effectively, they’re downright unstoppable.

Do you know that Salvador Perez was off to a begin this scorching? I didn’t, and that’s regardless of watching lots of Royals video games to get my Vinnie Pasquantino and Cole Ragans fixes. He’s someway dialed up his contact charges to early-career, slap-hitting Salvy ranges whereas retaining his late-career energy. He’s swinging as usually as ever – he’s supplied at almost half of the *balls* he’s seen, and 57% of pitches total. He’s seeing a career-low charge of pitches within the zone, and you’ll see why. However even when pitchers deceive him, he’s making the ball go far; he already has two homers on pitches outdoors the strike zone this 12 months.

How are the Astros so unhealthy, once more? Kyle Tucker is off to a blazing begin as effectively, and Jose Altuve is crushing the ball too. That’s nothing new for the 2 of them, although Tucker is placing the ball within the air extra often than ever, which is spectacular for an already fly ball-oriented hitter. He’s locked in and elevating, so you may count on some gaudy energy numbers from him given his wonderful command of the strike zone and really feel to hit. Cronenworth is type of a reduction model of Tucker on the plate, although he’s making hay this 12 months regardless of hitting extra grounders as a substitute of fewer. His actual talent is contact; a couple of barrels and he’ll look good on this listing, as a result of he merely doesn’t strike out a lot.

I’m going to cease going over each participant as I transfer down the listing, however some fast hits: Adam Duvall hasn’t performed a lot, however he’s nonetheless making loud elevated contact, the talent he’s hung his hat on all through his profession. Mike Trout isn’t even first on the Angels – however that’s as a result of he and Taylor Ward are each crimson scorching. Notably, Trout is making much more contact than he has in recent times whereas nonetheless hitting for energy; he’d been on a long-term whomps per whiff decline, however he appears to be again.

Questioning why the Cardinals are so anemic offensively regardless of two gamers within the prime 15? Nootbaar has barely performed this 12 months because of harm and Donovan is affected by a rock-bottom BABIP, so their contributions haven’t moved the needle very a lot. In the meantime, Nolan Arenado is working a zero whomps per whiff (no barrels, 31 whiffs), recent demotee Victor Scott II is at 0 and 28, and Paul Goldschmidt’s .019 whomps per whiff (1 barrel, 51 whiffs) is in “uh oh this man is likely to be cooked” vary.

Right here’s the whole thing of the list, which you’ll mess around with by making your personal copy or just peruse at your leisure. I’ve defaulted to a minimal of 150 pitches seen, which appears like a good minimal and, coincidentally, lets Nootbaar sneak onto the listing. When you’re searching for a stripped-down indicator of who’s been bopping this 12 months and who’s struggling out of the gate, I feel this listing distills lots of what you need right into a single quantity.

A couple of different odds and ends that I discovered amusing or enlightening: Mookie Betts is twentieth on this listing – and proper at his personal profession common. He’s not even on some unsustainable energy binge or swinging and lacking at a ridiculous clip. That is simply who he’s: His common appears to be like just like the white-hot spikes that mere mortal hitters obtain once they’re locked in.

Need some unheralded hitters bashing the ball? You’re searching for Luis García Jr., Iván Herrera, Davis Schneider, DJ Stewart, and perhaps even Amed Rosario. I’m undecided I fully consider in any of their breakouts, however they’re doing the necessary issues effectively this 12 months. I’d put Jackson Merrill on this listing too if he weren’t so extremely touted already. He received’t maintain his excessive BABIP, however he’s hitting the daylights out of the ball pretty usually, so I’m anticipating his energy numbers to tick as much as go together with his phenomenal skill to place the ball in play.

Why must you care about whomps per whiff? As I detailed in its introductory article, it’s pretty secure from 12 months to 12 months and does an inexpensive job of predicting offensive output. It’s additionally a pure means of trying on the hitters who do the necessary issues greatest; guys who smash the ball quite a bit in comparison with how often they arrive up empty simply are usually good hitters in the long term. It’s not ample to say that Bryan De La Cruz has 10 barrels, the identical quantity as Ward; he’s swung and missed greater than twice as usually in the same variety of plate appearances, so I’d take Ward’s energy any day. That’s the entire level of this scale.

So take pleasure in it! I do know Vinnie P does. It’s simple to get misplaced within the sound and fury of early season statistical indicators, however I feel this one is fairly dang good, and enjoyable to say apart from. And yeah, Stephenson appears like a bizarre chief for the entire thing – however while you have a look at the remainder of the excellent hitters dominating the listing, perhaps it says extra about his potential than it does in regards to the statistic’s utility. Good hitters whomp, they usually don’t whiff that always.