Mookie Who? Tyler O’Neill Is the Hottest Hitter in Baseball

Tyler O’Neill didn’t take lengthy to adapt to a brand new staff. Traded to the Red Sox in December after spending six years with the Cardinals, O’Neill claimed sole possession of a significant league document by homering on Opening Day for the fifth straight season. As we method the two-week mark of the season — sure, it’s early — he finds himself atop main leaderboards and has helped Boston get off to a 7-4 begin.

On Tuesday at Fenway Park, O’Neill launched a towering solo shot over the Inexperienced Monster off Orioles ace Corbin Burnes to place the Crimson Sox up 1-0 within the first inning:

The Statcast-estimated distance of 413 toes made that O’Neill’s longest of this season to this point. It was his sixth homer, momentarily shifting him out of a tie with Mookie Betts, Marcell Ozuna, and Mike Trout, although Trout countered along with his sixth afterward Tuesday night time. Nonetheless, O’Neill has matched Fred Lynn’s scorching 1979 begin for probably the most homers by a Crimson Sox participant within the staff’s first 11 video games of a season, doing so whereas making simply 9 begins and a pinch-hitting look. By comparability, final season O’Neill didn’t hit his sixth house run till August 11, and completed with simply 9 in 72 video games.

O’Neill started the season by homering off Mariners reliever Cody Bolton on Opening Day in Seattle. In doing so, he broke a tie with Yogi Berra (1955–58), Gary Carter (1977–80) and Todd Hundley (1994–97) for probably the most consecutive Opening Day video games with a house run. (And also you thought you have been glad baseball was again!) He closed out the Seattle sequence with a homer off Bryce Miller on March 31, took the Angels’ Griffin Canning and José Soriano deep on April 5, then added a dinger in opposition to Chase Silseth on April 7.

Sadly for the Crimson Sox, O’Neill’s blast on Tuesday was their solely run of the day; they misplaced 7-1. And oddly sufficient, the 28-year-old left fielder hasn’t pushed in anybody else regardless of his six house runs, which is extra a commentary on his teammates than his personal failings; he’s 1-for-3 with a pair of walks with runners in scoring place. No matter his RBI whole, he’s swinging a highly regarded bat general, hitting .344/.488/.906. It’s not day-after-day you’re miles forward of two future Corridor of Famers for the main league lead in key classes, so we’ll word that his slugging proportion is 126 factors forward of the second-ranked Trout, and his 276 wRC+ is 32 factors forward of the second-ranked Betts. In the meantime his on-base proportion merely leads the American League.

In fact, O’Neill has performed simply 10 video games, the primary 9 of them in opposition to the Mariners, A’s, and Angels — all on the highway — and there’s solely a lot we will take from that, however the primary factor is that he’s wholesome, and that’s a giant one, as a result of save for his monster 2021 season and his brawny physique (“listed at 5-foot-11 and 200 kilos, of which about 198 kilos is biceps and quads,” wrote Michael Baumann), accidents have largely outlined his profession.

Drafted by the Mariners out of a British Columbia highschool within the third spherical in 2013, O’Neill grew to become a Cardinal within the Marco Gonzales commerce 4 years later. He debuted within the majors on April 19, 2018, however spent a lot of that season and the following one bouncing forwards and backwards between Triple-A and the majors, with 5 (!) journeys to the injured listing thrown in for good measure. After spending all of 2020 within the majors and on the lively roster — and even profitable his first Gold Glove, however hitting a depressing .173/.261/.360 — he lastly obtained one thing near a full-length season below his belt in 2021, hitting .286/.352/560 (143 wRC+) with 34 homers, 15 steals, and 5.3 WAR in simply 136 video games, however accompanying that with two extra journeys to the IL. He added a second Gold Glove that yr, and completed eighth within the NL MVP voting, however since then he hasn’t come near replicating that season, with accidents limiting him to only 168 video games, 23 homers, a 98 wRC+ and a pair of.0 WAR throughout 2022–23, one other two-year span that included 5 journeys to the IL:

Thus the 28-year-old O’Neill entered this season having performed greater than 100 video games in a significant league season simply as soon as, and greater than 72 simply twice. Between his accidents, a crowded area of alternate options, his rising price ticket, and a spat with supervisor Oliver Marmol — who publicly questioned O’Neill’s effort working the bases throughout a heavy rain final April 4 in St. Louis, calling his effort “unacceptable” — O’Neill fell out of favor in St. Louis. On December 8, the Cardinals traded the pending free agent to the Crimson Sox in trade for a pair of righty relievers, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.

To this point, the change of surroundings appears to agree with him, although it’s value noting that Tuesday’s sport was his first at Fenway with the Crimson Sox. One sport, one homer? That’s a reasonably good charge!

In mild of O’Neill’s lengthy historical past of leg woes, it’s value mentioning that as of now he’s hitting the ball tougher than prior to now two seasons. I current these stats whereas acknowledging that we don’t have sufficient information to attract robust conclusions about what’s taking place but; that is as a lot about his decline from 2021 as it’s his torrid begin:

Keep in mind that, as Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carlton has famous, exit velocity stabilizes round 40 batted ball occasions, and barrel charge at 50 BBE, whereas groundball, fly ball, and hard-hit charges accomplish that at 80 BBE. Inside this small pattern, this yr’s exit velo and barrel charge at the very least look extra like 2021 than ’22 or ’23. On a rolling foundation of 25 plate appearances, each his xSLG and xwOBA present that his season-opening scorching streak resembles solely two or three stretches from the previous two seasons, whereas he had a handful of such stretches in 2021:

The opposite factor to notice about O’Neill is how a lot he’s tightened his method to this point. He’s a man with numerous swing-and-miss in his sport, a lot in order that whilst he ranked no. 61 on our Top 100 Prospects list in 2018, he had 30/40 grades (current/future) on his hit instrument, and from 2018–23, he struck out 30% of the time, seventh amongst hitters with at the very least 1,500 PA in that span. Manufacturing-wise, he’s close to the higher finish amongst guys with strikeout charges in that neighborhood; of the hitters with the 30 highest strikeout rates over at the very least 1,000 PA inside that span — everyone from 28.8% up — his 111 wRC+ ranks fourth, behind solely Luke Voit (123), Giancarlo Stanton (122), and Teoscar Hernández (117).

Getting into this season, O’Neill had swung at 72.5% of pitches inside the strike zone, together with 71% final yr; to this point this yr, he’s reduce that right down to 50.8%. Equally, his general swing charge of 48.1% coming into this yr (44.9% final yr) is right down to 36%. His swinging strike charge of 15.4% (11.2% final yr) is manner down to six.4%, and his strikeout charge, which was 25.2% final yr, is at 19.5%. Thoughts you, none of those stats have stabilized — swing charge takes about 50 PA (he’s at 41) and strikeout charge requires roughly 60 PA — however these are at the very least promising tendencies.

We’re clearly nonetheless early sufficient within the season that any development may very well be a mirage, a two-week heater or skid that may not advantage nearer scrutiny if it have been situated in mid-June or the canine days of August. Nonetheless, when mixed along with his scorching streak, the well being and change-of-scenery facets of O’Neill’s scenario are at the very least value keeping track of. He’s not going to proceed slugging .906, however for a staff whose outfielders entered this season ranking 22nd within the majors with a mixed 96 wRC+ since 2020 — i.e., the post-Betts period — this counts as a welcome growth.