Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/2/24

JT: Is Ronel Blanco fur realz or ought to we be very, very frightened as Blue Jays followers that Mark Shapiro loves glove first non-hitters?

Jay Jaffe: Blanco had his changeup working final night time, and it baffled the Blue Jays. They’ve the potential for a fairly respectable offense, however punting on third base by letting Matt Chapman go and changing him with Isiah Kiner-Falefa goes to value them, and I’m not wild about their second base scenario both.

slave to 25 PA: I do know Mike Trout’s not gonna keep a .900 slugging, however am I unsuitable to be a little bit hopeful he makes a bounce again. I’m frightened about his whiff price.

Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, you’re proper that he’s acquired much more swing and miss currently. His strikeout price jumped from about 21% from 2011-20 to twenty-eight% over the previous three seasons and I’m not clear why. Is likely to be price a better look if it persists

Al: I used to be skeptical about Volpe presumably hitting the ball within the air much less by flattening his assault angle however SSS be damned its night time and day from 2023. Fairly spectacular

Jay Jaffe: I feel folks — particularly Yankees followers — neglect how younger Volpe is. He’ll flip 23 later this month, is hardly a completed product, and has a ton of offensive upside. Dan Szymborski included him on his ZiPS breakouts listing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2024-booms-and-busts-hitters/. I anticipate him to enhance considerably year-over-year relative to final season

Jay Jaffe: And I do assume that with the arrival of Juan Soto, the Yankees’ offense has a really completely different vibe about it.

Cromulent: Thanks for chatting Jay. Curious to your historically-oriented take. If we ever get to automated balls and strikes, what’s the legacy of the pitch framing period? “Stealing strikes” or one thing extra nuanced? How if in any respect does that change catcher analysis?

Jay Jaffe: I feel possibly we’ll look again on it just like the excessive mounds of the Sixties, a time when the principles and the model of play had been favorable for a sure sort of participant earlier than being considerably neutralized by way of rule adjustments.

That mentioned, I don’t assume we’re going to get a full ABS (computerized ball and strike) system anytime quickly. It sounds as if what we’ll ultimately get is a problem system, and whereas that would cut back the affect of framing it wouldn’t totally negate it.

Stephen: RE: Yankees off to a scorching begin: might it simply be that they’ve extra good gamers than final 12 months, changing guys like Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero with Juan Soto slightly than some grand narrative about hitting coaches and a brand new mentality (grinding ABs). In any case, they had been seventh in pitches per plate look final 12 months however they only had loads of dangerous hitters who couldn’t do injury.

Jay Jaffe: They did give an inordinate variety of plate appearances to Quad-A hackers, with Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney getting much more PA than the 2 guys you named. Nevertheless, I do anticipate signficant enchancment from Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera (who was worse than the Quad-A guys), Stanton, and Rizzo, and regardless of my normal distaste for Alex Verdugo, he’s a giant step up from the aforementioned as properly

v2micca: I do know it’s actually actually early, however as a Braves fan that additionally enjoys watching the Mets undergo, is it time to get enthusiastic about the potential of Kelenic tormenting the Mets for years to come back?

Jay Jaffe: You’d hardly be the primary to dream on Kelenic changing into an excellent main leaguer, however the woods are full of folks totally damaged whereas ready for that to occur. Caveat emptor.

Sharps: When you and your child had been followers of a mediocre-to-bad group this 12 months (coughnationalscough), what nationwide tales would have you ever excited for baseball?

Jay Jaffe: Off the highest of my head, not essentially so as: the arrival of Yamamoto, the new-look Dodgers, Juan Soto again within the Jap time zone, the return of O’Neill Cruz (and indicators of life in Pittsburgh?), the Rangers with Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter,  the rookie Jacksons (Chourio, Merrill, and ultimately Holliday), a practical Mike Trout, the query of whether or not the Orioles can comply with up final 12 months’s 100-win season…

Visitor: Are the Pink Sox going shock folks this 12 months? Or nonetheless not sufficient high quality arms?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see them having sufficient beginning pitching. They’ve achieved very properly the primary time by way of the rotation, however let’s see if it sticks

seth r: joey votto must be on an MLB roster

Jay Jaffe: I feel he might be, however let’s keep in mind he simply signed with the Blue Jays about 3 weeks in the past and wishes some at-bats underneath recreation situations to prepare. He had only one in an official exhibition recreation, homered on the primary pitch he noticed, after which rolled his proper ankle within the dugout proper afterwards and didn’t play once more.

Jay Jaffe: Search for him in late April or early Might

Dancin’ Dan McGraw: Yankees provide Soto a ten 12 months/500 mil cope with an decide out after 12 months 5 and 6.  Does this get it achieved?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely however he may need these opt-out years nearer to the entrance of the deal.

sliptoad: in honor of blanco, which do you like in a no-hitter– aces dominating or somebody popping out of nowhere and having the night time of their life?

Jay Jaffe: Why not each? I do assume it’s fairly nice after we get journeymen and relatively obscure guys having the night time of their life, although. Edwin Jackson, Philip Humber, Bud Smith, Mike Fiers (twice!) and so forth

Jimmers: Why are folks pushing for Vizquel within the HOF due to his protection however not Andrue Jones (primarily based on protection)? Is it as a result of his defensive peak was shorter? I don’t get it.

Jay Jaffe: Leaving apart each gamers’ off-field points (each had been arrested for home violence, for one factor), the distinction appears to be that Vizquel had sufficient longevity to method 3,000 hits regardless of being one of many worst hitters  of the fashionable period; his 82 OPS+ is tied with two HOF shortstops, Rabbit Maranville and Luis Aparicio, for the bottom of any participant with a minimum of 2,500 hits. Jones alternatively lacked longevity and principally fell aside bodily and maybe mentally after signing a giant free agent cope with the Dodgers. By no means thoughts the truth that the defensive metrics are way more supportive of Jones, who was additionally an above-average hitter and collected about 17 extra WAR in ~3500 fewer PA

erghammer: With all of the analysis you’ve achieved in regards to the guys who’re within the Corridor, who possibly must be within the Corridor, and so forth., have you ever ever thought “my intestine tells me this man must be in however a case for it might’t be constructed round standard metrics,” and you then went out and seemed for unconventional metrics and even began to assume up a brand new metric for measuring the participant’s affect?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t do this in help of anyone participant as a result of that’s dangerous course of that undermines the credibility of the underlying work. However I’ve messed round with how I consider relievers in a couple of other ways, and I’ve achieved so extra not too long ago with starters, too. The purpose isn’t to justify why, say, Dave Stieb must be within the Corridor, it’s to see if we will discover some separation and due to this fact equitable technique of recognizing the most effective from amongst a large group that got here and went from ballots within the blink of a watch, with Stieb one of many high candidates inside that group.

If I can do it in a means that first convinces myself after which extends to different voters, whether or not it’s Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Santana or any person(s) else, THAT is what I’m aiming for.

Wild Invoice: Very best composition of Os infield? I say Mountcastle/Ohearn platoon at First, Holliday at 2nd, Gunnar at Brief and Westburg at third as soon as Holliday is named up hopefully quickly.

Jay Jaffe: I feel that appears about proper however possibly it’s Coby Mayo at first base sooner or later within the not-too-distant future.

Brad Radke’s Burner: When do you assume, if ever, Johan Santana will seem on a committee poll?

Jay Jaffe: He’s not even eligible till after what would have been his 10-year run on the BBWAA poll ends in 2027. The following obtainable poll underneath the present construction can be 2029, however the competitors for poll house goes to be fierce, and the truth that he acquired lower than 5% works in opposition to him if you’re speaking about competitors that acquired percentages that had been an order of magnitude increased after which some.

Solely Fan(atic)s: Persuade me that the E. Ruiz demotion isn’t about as blatant tanking because it will get

Jay Jaffe: He was a 1.3-WAR participant in common responsibility final 12 months, not the second coming of Rickey Henderson. This might be service time manipulation nevertheless it’s not like he doesn’t have areas the place he might enhance given his lack of plate self-discipline and incapacity to hit the ball arduous up to now.

Sandwich: Bryce elder pitched 180 innings final 12 months was excellent for a overwhelming majority of them. Why is there nonetheless a lot doubt simply because he throws 88

Jay Jaffe: Throws 88 and doesn’t strike many hitters out. That mentioned, he’s proven he can ship bulk innings at a better-than-average price, and the Braves will virtually definitely want him to plug a gap of their rotation quickly sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: This is applicable extra to the Ruiz scenario than to the Elder one however typically having minor league choices can actually work in opposition to a participant right now of 12 months. The A’s simply picked up Tyler Nevin on waivers, and he’s out of choices, the place Ruiz just isn’t. They’ve an opportunity to judge whether or not the brand new man can assist them with out the danger of shedding a lot.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Inexperienced Eyes: I learn that final night time’s no-hitter was the earliest ever. What ahistorical poppycock is that this? Actually each different no-hitter ever got here earlier than it!

Jay Jaffe: womp womp

Jay Jaffe: earliest by calendar date in a season

bosoxforlife: Are you pleased with the sport as it’s now with fewer base hits however extra energy and strikeouts?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve come round to desirous to see extra hits, increased batting averages, and fewer three-true-outcomes. This can be the 12 months you lastly get my treatise, “Let’s Give a Shit About Batting Common Once more.”

Tigers fan: Which present hitters 26 and underneath do you assume are most definitely to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Soto and Ronald Acuña Jr. with a giant hole forward of everyone else, then a fwq from amongst Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodríguez, Michael Harris II, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, possibly Fernando Tatis Jr. if he can put in about 15 years of mannequin citizenship

Marshall: Does Mookie Betts have a greater likelihood at unanimous HOF induction than Mike Trout? I get the sense that Mookie is universally cherished in a means that Trout isn’t.

Jay Jaffe: I feel that’s simply recency bias getting the higher of you. Trout is a 12 months older and has 20 WAR and two MVP awards on Betts, who clearly makes up some floor by taking part in on higher groups.

Tigers fan: Sooner or later will followers and HOF voters want to regulate their standards transferring from counting statistics like 3000 hits, 500 HR, 300 wins to much less custom statistics like WAR, wRC, and OPS+?

Jay Jaffe: it’s already occurring. Contemplate current HOF place gamers similar to Raines, Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer… none of them reached the 3000 or 500 milestones. on the pitching facet, three of the final 4 starters (Mussina, Pedro, Smoltz) had been in need of 300 wins.

Jay Jaffe: JAWS, child.

Mets: Its by no means too early in Flushing to get that sinking feeling.  Minor leaguers are dissing the main league group publicly.  The management drawback seems to proceed to swirl.  Any early ideas?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the Mets have confused the general public and themselves as to what their intentions are for this 12 months. By buying and selling Scherzer and Verlander final 12 months after which staying out of the deep finish of the free agent pool this 12 months, they made it fairly obvious that within the quick time period they don’t anticipate to contend until they luck into it. Issues just like the signing of J.D. Martinez and the demotion of Vientos type of cloud that.

Josh: Did you get an opportunity to look at Bobby Miller’s begin final week? Are you as enthusiastic about his season as me? He seemed completely dominant.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, I’m very excessive on Miller. Like Walker Buehler earlier than him, he’s acquired a vanity and depth on the subject of his mound presence to go together with the good stuff, and I feel he’s able to being the group’s #1 or #1A starter

CardsBadMakesMeSad: Jordan Walker has proven improved self-discipline within the early-going, however the batted ball numbers nonetheless depart loads to be desired. Suppose he turns the nook this summer time and begins demolishing baseballs?

Jay Jaffe: I do assume Walker will take a step ahead. His early numbers are ugly however come on, we’re speaking about 4 video games price of information.

Byoung: Early April video games when climate is at its worst ought to largely be between divisional foes in case of rainouts. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: In concept that works however the issue is that many of the groups are concentrated within the northern half of the US, the place temperatures are cooler. There merely aren’t sufficient warm-weather or coated websites to maintain baseball out of the chilly in April.

Luke: Hello Jay, how probably do you assume the rally Reds are to maintain their capacity to win 1 run video games over the course of the season? After final season and the primary few video games this 12 months I’m beginning to really feel dangerously hopeful….

Jay Jaffe: Whereas an excellent bullpen definitely helps, successful one-run video games isn’t a dependable predictor of successful extra one-run video games

Jay Jaffe: in different phrases, try to be braced for some regression ultimately — however if you happen to and the Reds are fortunate, possibly it is going to maintain out lengthy sufficient that the group is contending for one thing

Anil: Bailey Ober? Any ideas

Jay Jaffe: Man acquired bombed in a single begin? I feel you’re oberreacting

Jay Jaffe: TRY THE VEAL!

Austin: They haven’t been dominant however has the Tigers begin altered the outlook for his or her season? Their pitching has seemed fairly good to begin the 12 months.

Jay Jaffe: Because of the event of a few of their younger gamers, the Tigers do appear to be a group poised for a breakthrough in a division that appears much more winnable now that the Twins have misplaced Royce Lewis for a month or extra.

Benny: With Greinke a free agent and Kershaw, Scherzer, and Verlander on the IL (to not point out deGrom and Cole), which energetic non-injured MLB pitcher is most definitely to make the Corridor of Fame sometime?

Jay Jaffe: I’d put Jansen and Kimbrel at increased odds than any starter apart from Cole, however assuming you’re asking about starters, I’d go together with Zack Wheeler. He’s a couple of WAR behind teammate Aaron Nola however is trending significantly better currently

John Darc: Does your child like Juan Soto?

Jay Jaffe: She hasn’t seen a lot of him but, only a few video games with him on the Padres. I anticipate that to alter.

HOF: How do you are feeling in regards to the gamers who had nice however shorter careers?  I all the time thought guys like Wright and Mattingly must be in.  The again of Oliva’s bb card is loaded with daring print – he was nice from day 1 for 9 years and it took endlessly to get in.

Jay Jaffe: The longer I’ve achieved Corridor evaluations, the extra I’ve come round towards increased peak guys with shorter careers. Nonetheless, I feel the peaks of the fellows you point out had been a bit too quick or in any other case restricted for me to offer them sturdy consideration. Wright’s 39.5 WAR seven-year peak (WAR7) is lower than 4 wins off the height commonplace for 3B, likewise for Oliva in RF. Mattingly is 6.2 quick at 1B (almost a win per 12 months). Dale Murphy is about 3.5 in need of the height commonplace in CF AND had the 2 MVP awards, i’ve come round a bit on him.

JD: When do the small pattern sizes of early season really matter to you? Like, what sorts of issues do you search for that really appear to offer one thing tangible to go on, slightly than only a blip in an extended season?

Jay Jaffe: Totally different stats stabilize at completely different pattern sizes, and over the following few months we’ll be writing about that loads. 60 batted balls is one vital threshold that I’m significantly aware of .

jackal: Do you assume Lourdes Gurriel can have a late profession leap ahead?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 30 and has almost 2,500 PA in his profession and eight.9 fWAR/10.9 bWAR. Set profession highs in each WARs final 12 months (2.1/3.0). That is his leap ahead, and whereas it’s good, it doesn’t scream “perennial All-Star”.

Matt VW: Earliest by date in calendar season, however Bob Feller threw a no-hitter on opening day. The factoid says extra about how the schedule has modified than about precocious pitching dominance.

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Feller’s was thrown on April 16, 1940. he was additionally throwing about 250 miles an hour at a time when few pitchers had been within the 90s.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, it’s been pretty chatting with you at present — two weeks in a row, how about that? — and we’ll do it once more very quickly. Thanks a lot for stopping by!