2024 Prospect Week Chat | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thanks for testing all of our Prospect Week work for the positioning, together with this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get proper into it.

Andrew: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than quite a lot of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to point out to stand up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson loads, ideally he performs a little bit higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Lengthy-term dev mission, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy

Jesse: Do the Mets have a high farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects throughout the commerce deadline final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox

Free Kyle Manzardo: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. Extra a forty five sort

Angelus Novus: Why is Hollday (70) graded increased than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you’re taking over the following decade, from that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Higher perceived likelihood to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Robust to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.

JDP’s greatest fan: What’s holding again JDP from being a high 100 prospect? Simply have to see a bit extra energy in sport?

Eric A Longenhagen: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Okay%, in a nook OF spot I need you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has so far, power my hand. Fairly mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless likelihood he pops, simply hasn’t but.

Morgan (NY): Which prospects at present ranked under 75 have one of the best likelihood to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: The youngsters in that vary

Jon Kay: Do chats rely as feedback? No actual query, I admire what you do. Hopefully you may stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, thanks for all the nice work. After a powerful 12 months on the plate, why do you assume Connor Norby will not be a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Both he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, most likely.

Chris: How far was Jose Fleury out of your decide to click on subsequent 12 months ?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tremendous bizarre. This can be a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually glorious changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t assume it’ll work in a means that he’ll ever be on the Prime 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he needs to be a very misleading lengthy reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly like Yusmeiro Petit sort?

Roman: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your listing? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t assume he’s top15 in SD’s system

Eric A Longenhagen: Jagger can be on the One other 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout an entire begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ value him quite a lot of time. Wants to point out he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch

Jon Kay: I like to consider your scores for FV as useful regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you choose is the almost certainly. Is there a means that you may add SD in your evalus as a means of measuring ground and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is ground and subsequently I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of many former prospect writers on the website tried to do a model of this and other people felt it was tremendous complicated to have ground/seemingly/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is a little bit simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name

eye check appreciator: noticed an attention-grabbing quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. virtually each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for lifeless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing modified final 12 months, massive time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually appreciated him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. Might catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t assume he’s instantly a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Okay’s, however may have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.

Ryan: Might groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their abilities with the pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dunno if “worth much less” is precisely proper however “mission much less” most likely can be.

Lasres: did you overlook Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is under MLB common, seems like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line of us

Too Many Mooks: Eric, actually beloved the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through annually, groups lists, draft ranks, and so on. gracias

dave: How a lot of a adverse impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant improvement? What proportion of groups would select to have a short-season crew, if allowed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed by brief season find yourself there. It supplies fewer gamers alternative to develop however possibly doesn’t harm any particular person’s dev? I feel the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Share clever…

Eric A Longenhagen: lol going via a crew guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for an additional affiliate at this level? jeepers

Eric A Longenhagen: most likely like half the groups? There are definnitely folks in baseball who nonetheless assume there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as doable to school baseball. I wager we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA

Luke: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (high 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run downside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sufficient that it limits his function, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him unhealthy.

wheelhouse: Do a particular org’s particular flaws ever impression your evaluation of a person prospect? I take a look at stories of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to achieve his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not likely. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting should you do it that means. It might really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both elevate or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I feel most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are sensible sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.

Oliver: If not for the notion that he was a powerful decide to attend faculty, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the blokes taken forward of him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I most likely had hello ma little too excessive. He bought $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s most likely extra early/mid second spherical in a standard draft, was late 2 in a loaded one

NB: Eric and Tess, Nice work once more on Prospect Week!  I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I like getting a variety of opinions.  I really feel such as you guys are likely to fee youthful worldwide signees increased than others whereas rating latest MLB draftees a little bit decrease.  I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your Prime 100.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: All three had been picks to click on, we like them loads. Head put actually robust contact knowledge on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m a little bit suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the best way his palms loop. Let’s see how he does towards massive velo. Wilken, you already know the report. I need 1B/3B varieties to have nearer proximity to the large league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The youngsters’ ceilings are a lot greater than Wilken-types (Walcott, and so on) that regardless that they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to chance that they’re unicorn gamers forward of men like Wilken until they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA

Bob: You’re the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see retaining him from being a high 100 sort? Lack of a defensive house? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?

Eric A Longenhagen: A whole lot of these questions are simply going to be answered with the following piece. I don’t imagine in his hit device as a lot because the others, I suppose. Additionally trying like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s tremendous however not *that* good.

Tim: Do you assume Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t

Keith: Would Drew Thorpe be a strong comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you are feeling he might be elite with a velo bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. One other man whose title is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, may use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout decide as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.

Ralph: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nearer to fiftieth total

birds birds birds: Way back, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the largest bounce for a minor leaguer to make.  Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Triple-A to massive leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s most likely Excessive-A to Double-A, sure.

Mike Cameron Maybin: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this 12 months? Clearly the ability’s there and he’s bought time, however the Okay fee is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early stories are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly bleak, imo. 64% contact fee is under any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Nonetheless has big juice, although.

unhappy Rangers fan: What’s your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a difficulty of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball continues to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless assume Jack can be a good massive leaguer however most likely an RP at this level. That is his 40-man eval 12 months so we’d see TEX make a transfer in that regard

Your title: Love and admire all of the content material. Simply out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You could have Caminero as a RFer regardless that he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you may have Shaw as 2B regardless that he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely our projection, after I assume it’s the proper name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I alter it

Jason: What occurred to the Simply Missed article?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra a “100 extra names to know” article in order you may think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.

Chris: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to point out as a way to be within the high 100 a 12 months from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: One other man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with big current uncooked, assume the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him alter to fastballs round his palms.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Can science clarify why a number of projection techniques (ZiPS and Steamer) assume Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I might be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I feel Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final 12 months.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you may truly do it totally) provides you with means higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast sort stuff may enable you to mannequin protection should you had entry to that knowledge.

Eddie: When Spencer Jones was as outdated as Jasson Dominguez is correct now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Really feel like there’s quite a lot of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson after they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say

Eric A Longenhagen: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in a brilliant tight edit proper on high of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there may be. Doesn’t imply I feel he’s unhealthy, simply assume the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so massive that he wanted to be elevated

Eric A Longenhagen: Age variations and variations in projection usually go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ will not be.

Jordash: Is it simply me, or do you generally confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?

Eric A Longenhagen: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past check in highschool and my instructor advised me my priorities had been effed

Jordash: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the robust Orioles system. Do you assume he may be an on a regular basis man by 12 months’s finish?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. Could be out-talented by the others. Nonetheless participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Suppose J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.

Refugee: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you employ plate self-discipline and batted ball knowledge to paint your scouting? 2. The place are you getting that knowledge from? I can solely discover it publicly out there on the AAA stage.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re sourcing milb-wide knowledge from crew contacts. I’m chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase knowledge is illuminating greater than in-person seems, batted ball/contact stuff serves to substantiate the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve missed.

Scott: Seen Solometo will not be on high 100.  What do it is advisable to see from him to crack listing sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: Two or three extra ticks. I feel he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many impression starters who solely sit 91-92.

mason morris: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Appeared so out of whack when he was wholesome final 12 months that there’s no means he hits until his sing adjustments.

JH: Juan Brito was on final 12 months’s model of the Picks to Click on and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas exhibiting the identical mixture of contact, endurance, and a little bit pop that appeared to catch your eye final 12 months. Any perception as to why he missed this 12 months’s listing? Has the scouting report backed up, or had been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his 12 months was extra like treading water?

Eric A Longenhagen: Protection is horrible

Ryan: How troublesome is it to alter your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it impression your command/management?

Eric A Longenhagen: In all probability simpler mentioned than performed and will depend on the particular person. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the best way their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and adjustments in stride course which have impression up the physique in such a means that alters arm and strategy angle. Discovering one thing the athlete can do persistently so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a vital piece of it.

Phil: Do you may have any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to assume he might be a serious league starter quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s fee stats from 2023 recommend he needs to be throwing it extra, and we must always all be trying to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this 12 months. They’ve two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.

Keith: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…numerous guys, you simply need to do different stuff like throw actually onerous.

Phils honk: Is Caba one of the best defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he essentially the most gifted defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis

visitor: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Lengthy for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball in line with Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. However in line with stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thanks for the suggestions!

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion

Get Two, Brute?: Is there any explicit improvement difficulty with latest Pittsburgh graduates you may level to concerning their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant aspect, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a kind of backfields that I’m solely on a couple of times a 12 months, and it’s robust for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater thought of what they’re doing with dev.

Mike S: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season?  Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final 12 months.

David: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was type of the outline of him going into the draft and as a consequence of damage he was barely in a position to play within the minors, was curious if there was something further to may notice about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?

Eric A Longenhagen: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish measurement/power for an adolescent if you stand proper subsequent to him, swing continues to be work in progress, loopy energy/velocity combo.

PJ: I used to be shocked to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on listing. What about him fails to impress you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Simply not sufficient area on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and can be on the crew listing. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final 12 months, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), onerous mid-80s slider. Good prospect

romorr: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years high 100, are you able to give me your two greatest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: nailed it with Baumeister i feel

Eric A Longenhagen: you guys are good at this and principally guessing the names on this subsequent piece

jakefromboonesfarm: A number of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final 12 months.  What separates them a lot in your eval?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have almost as a lot bodily expertise. Heston seemed cumbersome and powerful throughout ’22 AFL, seemed tremendous minimize and explosive in 2023, I believed he hit a unique gear.

Jeremy: As a Phillies fan, how nervous ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slightly bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the best way it strikes in a reasonably profound means. I feel it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.

Reggie: the dodgers appear to have actually performed nicely with their most up-to-date DSL crew. Who do you want greatest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?

Eric A Longenhagen: nicely one in all them was on the highest 100 and one was a decide to click on

Kate: Stunned to not see Celesten within the “that is what they appear to be” part of the picks to click on.  Is that merely a results of him simply not stepping into video games final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and seemed good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he seems sort, we nonetheless don’t actually *know* something concerning the hit device with zero professional knowledge and due to how restricted in-person seems had been in 2023

Colton: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how usually do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Simply going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.

Eric A Longenhagen: by no means ever

Eric A Longenhagen: there are guys who i haven’t seen in particular person however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie examine and have knowledge to formulate my very own opinion

Abimelec Ortiz: Ideas on the hitter with one of the best title within the minors?  He crushed it final 12 months with Okay enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: you nailed it, simply assume the efficiency is a little bit shy of high 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.

Daniel: How massive of swing by way of worth is Austin Wells defensive place?

Eric A Longenhagen: monumental. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final 12 months.

Gronch: How would you may have graded Brandon Belt’s energy developing? Clearly the entire package deal, with glorious on-base, above common protection, and playable hit device was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for large energy

Eric A Longenhagen: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be just a few months shy of turning 22

Matt: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford?  Most individuals have him ranked however you didn’t.  

General, do you see the Phillies as having a company that’s trending in the proper course?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils listing. Simply not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.

Sanford: Mets prospects are brief (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Only a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: top particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/ground/ceiling that shorter prospects are likely to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout top)

Eric A Longenhagen: good catch. I do assume lever size is a trait groups care about and may need to do with stability of the hit device. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued as a consequence of lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and so on.

Kate: Was a little bit shocked to see Luis Morales bounce into the Prime 100 so early.  Do you assume he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Undoubtedly not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm velocity, purely a ceiling-driven embrace.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s essentially the most stunning {industry} suggestions you acquired in your high 101 this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: had too few inside jokes

ram: Has there ever been a disparity between your listing and the ZIPs listing that has prompted you to return and reevaluate a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Danny sends me zips just a few days forward so i can double test some guys. This 12 months it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt snug transferring on from rapidly from a high 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their crew listing

Pirates Hurdles: Interested by Termarr’s path, what do it is advisable to see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and elevate, could have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit device. Gonna Okay a ton.

Deputy: Who’s the following unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?

Eric A Longenhagen: Take your decide of the DSL arms on their listing, Arias, and so on.

RoadWarriorShaq: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that 12 months to start out making his means onto prospect lists.  .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection seems extra like a certainty than a chance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Def a crew listing man already. Prime 100? IDK, is Myles Straw understanding gangbusters?

Walton Dilcox: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be a DH

Too Many Mooks: To what proportion of those questions may you simply reply “Learn the article, dingus”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The proportion has lowered since we began chatting

Eric A Longenhagen: actually this 12 months it’s most likely solely like 10%

Spencer: Of the blokes on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s almost certainly to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I received’t rely Chourio, both (nevertheless it’s most likely him)…

Eric A Longenhagen: saying Colt Keith can also be kinda dishonest…

Eric A Longenhagen: How about Jairo Iriarte?

J: That is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP function, I discover it more and more troublesome to gauge worth.  Simply by way of the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? If that’s the case, what has it modified?

Eric A Longenhagen: For certain. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth through innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ varieties who work in bulk reduction, or who it is advisable to get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging crew scenario. Within the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft attractive arms when the worth feels too good to cross up, I’m extra on steady performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not

Eric A Longenhagen: nice query btw

Your Title: Have you ever heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser recognized outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. If that’s the case, would love any notes you may have

Eric A Longenhagen: In fact, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead evening final 12 months, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.

Billy G: Along with all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth decide in a draft that had 5 “first total” varieties in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA accurately, they’ll’t decide high 10 subsequent 12 months no matter how unhealthy they’re. Even when I stick to them to Vegas, is there any hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, it’s a tragic scenario. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should it’s prefer to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the following couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It might be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try to encourage eacother simply because.

prospect month: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove need to be in these spots for the bat to play as a median starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly not a median starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth greatest man at LF/1B, that’s a very good participant) however positively higher than their alternate options.

Manny: You’re an growth crew and you may steal all of the Yankees within the high 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmm BoSox

romorr: Talking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Okay% was fairly horrid as soon as he bought to AA. What number of prospects Okay that a lot, that determine it out at that stage? Steep hill to climb, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me

camelcase: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Excessive energy potential with weak hit device at a premium defensive place. Is that this Joey Gallo at shortstop if every thing breaks proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Javy Baez if every thing breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road end result

sliptoad: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? folks on the astros subreddit appear to assume that’s the long run however based mostly in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that type of timeline

Eric A Longenhagen: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Tremendous gifted, although. Would count on a decrease burn. However hey, George Springer was additionally a gifted mess when he was drafted…

Eric A Longenhagen: so was derek fisher

Thom: Hello Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this 12 months’s listing is shorter as a consequence of a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as short-term or do you count on the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little little bit of each. I feel this can be a down 12 months but in addition assume the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.

John: Roki Sasaki would rank high 3 if he had been on the listing?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2-4 vary, yeah

New UK Fan: Thanks for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?

Eric A Longenhagen: man that’s soooo robust. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too

Jake: What’s your prediction for the following wave in analytics?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s already underway throughout quite a lot of the league, however: quantifying the best way the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion through graph, assessing flexibility through angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval device and to make MLB changes in-game

Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally surprise what a number of years of the mix will yield by way of the best way these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.

onomatopoeia: No query, simply needed to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot glorious content material. I particularly love the Successfully Wild appearances. Thanks for the entire onerous work!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it looks as if quite a lot of of us hearken to EW

Kate: Not a high 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate stories on Ricardo Cabrera.  Some had him as a legit plus runner final 12 months on the advanced and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he may have to maneuver to 1B finally.  Have you ever gotten any seems at him not too long ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous tough take a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Undoubtedly gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit knowledge is actually robust.

Billy G: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?

Eric A Longenhagen: OMG sure, nerd

Eric A Longenhagen: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup seemed fairly good within the fall, too. backend sort

Simon: Hello Eric, Wyatt Langford’s bounce over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous attention-grabbing to me. What did he present in these previous couple of months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Looks as if the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day

Eric A Longenhagen: Turning on the ball with energy means higher than simply about some other high prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely cleansing out velo round his palms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat

Walton Dilcox: Can Rodney Inexperienced play CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: That is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Robust profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the ability, although.

Snowbird: I’m wondering your ideas on Welbyn Francisca?  You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went nicely, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any likelihood he pops?

romorr: I don’t actually assume Chayce McDermott has performed sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Nonetheless a MIRP/SIRP for  you? Or do you assume there may be “extra” that might get him a spot within the rotation.

Eric A Longenhagen: of the blokes with reduction threat in that 45 FV space he’s the one I feel has one of the best likelihood to iron issues out. he’s so free and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an impression arm of some type.

h8r: Are dodgers prospects essentially the most overrated (industry-wide) as a consequence of perceived developmental benefits within the org?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do assume the attractive orgs get a bump, typically

Misplaced A’s Fan: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact fee and premium EV final season. However his future hit device grade is simply a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get unhealthy data on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre trying, and i feel the chase will finally impression his hit device

Will: Did you think about together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click on for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a particular motive you’ve soured on him for the reason that 2023 draft? Or was he missed/there simply wasn’t sufficient area to say him in that article?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i assumed, whole incapacity to drag the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to decide a motive that’d be it

Walton Dilcox: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? School and HS esp up high…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks as if a banner draft

Eric A Longenhagen: they kicked ass

j: what goes on into the numerous variations, after they occur, between dash velocity (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we determine candidates to outperform run grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume dash velocity is a good way to eval velocity. Or slightly, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time for my part. Dash velocity measures velocity of their quickest one-second window of operating. House-to-first instances incorporate acceleration and lengthy velocity, in addition to a measure of the occasion through which velocity makes the largest distinction (out vs protected at 1B).

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: How usually do you get an opportunity to observe Worldwide or Jap League video games in particular person? Do you may have video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll go house to PA for per week or two each summer season and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not excellent, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically totally different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unimaginable device

Narvain: Nice work, Eric!  In your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the perfect body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis.  What’s the splendid physique measurement for a SP these days?  Has it modified in any respect?

Eric A Longenhagen: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering right down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, steadiness within the decrease physique, free arm motion

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel groups are extra open to brief king pitchers due to strategy angle concerns

TomBruno23: What/Who’re you most trying ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the pretend video games get going?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel each Central divisions might be quite a lot of enjoyable.

Jonny: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB sort?  Or is his offense not adequate?

Eric A Longenhagen: (cringes) seemed substandard throughout the board final 12 months, my dude

Hal: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve grow to be considerably increased or decrease on during the last a number of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flawed nook bats when the ability is a 70 or higher

Bob: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 battle by finish of crew management. is that not a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50

Parv: I’ve seen a number of feedback not too long ago (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is total rather more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially as a consequence of all of this newly out there knowledge within the minors and faculty. What’s your tackle that? Are you aware anybody who’s tried to investigate this by time to see if we’re figuring out the proper prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh we’re means higher at this now, each by expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs value evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval through my How’s My Driving piece final week

Eric A Longenhagen: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly

Colton: The place would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 close to Kjerstad

Ryan: What can we count on to see from Justin Campbell this 12 months? Thanks on your time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody with CLE advised me he’s good to go however I do not know how he’ll look

Andrew: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter?  Looks as if some guys (e.g., Dalton Speeding has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final 12 months at Louisville) have this as a “talent” to some extent, nevertheless it’s most likely much less repeatable than BB talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his palms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his sport nevertheless it’s created by a deficiency not a talent.

Scurvy: I want you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for the way Daniel Espino’s profession will prove.

Eric A Longenhagen: Almost certainly? Brendan McKay’s buddy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I got here house giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was a number of the greatest stuff i’ve ever seen in particular person, ever ever. Shoulders, man.

Will: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any motive to alter that impression?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP, imo

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington ought to give him each opp to start out, why not?

DH: I used to be a bit shocked to not see Joey Loperfido within the high 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?

Eric A Longenhagen: you may have it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU listing final 12 months and can be in an analogous spot as a march via crew lists

Nassim Nunez: Whats my ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: slick utility man

Contented O: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce package deal for Stop? I feel if they’ll get it performed with out transferring Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!

Eric A Longenhagen: not for me, bro.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not even shut

Kate: How is the final article coming as we speak totally different from the picks to click on article precisely?  Appears like as we speak’s might embrace guys who you don’t count on to rise, however are simply outdoors the highest 100 in the meanwhile?  Possibly consists of guys anticipated to graduate as nicely?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra about guys you wish to find out about proper now for a story motive. It’s not titled nicely within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂

Tempe, AZ: Quick access to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks as if an enormous plus for residing right here.  How does this impression your technique of evaluating prospects? Does it assist you to get extra and higher seems at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you are feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you would possibly solely see on video or 1-2 per 12 months (like those that practice in Florida)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure to all, that is my full time job and I’m at just a few hundred video games a 12 months

Travis: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Noticed him loads all through his novice profession and he all the time comped to a Matt Strahm sort for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing an expert inning but.

Eric A Longenhagen: No person did instructs in FL in addition to TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, free/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…attention-grabbing dev faculty arm

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Because of the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please think about a subscription to the positioning and thanks for all of your type phrases.