2023 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects

• 
• 1.
• Jordan Walker
• Pos: 3B
• Born: 2002-05-22
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 5″
• W: 220 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted twenty first total within the 2020 draft, Decatur HS (Decatur, GA); signed for $2.9 million.
• Earlier Rank: #1 (org), #7 (High 101)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Walker continued to redline each Trackman engine in Double-A regardless of not turning 20 years previous till a month into the season. His batted ball profile would have been among the many finest within the main leagues final 12 months, and he routinely smacks baseballs 110 mph or extra. His contact charges stay fantastic, though he did chase extra towards Double-A pitching. I feel he’s going to make sufficient contact and hit the ball very, very onerous when he does. Walker does nonetheless hit the ball on the bottom a bit bit greater than you’d like, and if he falls in need of a real elite energy end result, that is likely to be why. Then again, if he tweaks his strategy sufficient and begins pulling the ball within the air extra constantly, he’s going to win house run titles, and he began to raise the ball extra later within the 12 months.

Walker is listed right here at third base and outfield—as a result of he did spend most of 2022 on the scorching nook—however is clearly transitioning to a nook outfield spot. He runs properly sufficient and throws greater than properly sufficient for proper subject, however he’s going to take a while to become a mean glove on the grass. The bat is likely to be prepared earlier than the glove, and he’s nonetheless not a lock to keep away from first base in the long run, however as soon as once more this listing cycle, the offensive upside right here is so loud, that simply doesn’t transfer the needle a lot for me.

OFP: 70 / All-star slugger, place TBD
Variance: Excessive. Opposite to what I wrote about OFP 50s within the intro, you’d choose your OFP 70s to be decrease variance. Walker has true elite outcomes within the ninetieth percentile and up, however you additionally don’t need to go too far under fiftieth percentile to start out seeing “higher Nomar Mazara” in play.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Along with the huge energy, Walker has understated velocity, and posts high-end dash velocity. Granted, it takes him a second to rise up to hurry, and stolen bases usually are not doubtless a giant long-term a part of his recreation. Nonetheless, his 22 steals final 12 months are not any fluke.  How his contact price holds up and whether or not he’ll raise sufficient to get to his energy in video games are the most important questions transferring ahead. Given his proximity, loud instruments, and efficiency, nevertheless, Walker is a transparent reduce top-five fantasy prospect.

• 
• 2.
• Masyn Winn
• Pos: SS
• Born: 2002-03-21
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 5′ 11″
• W: 180 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 54th total within the 2020 draft, Kingwood HS (Kingwood, TN); signed for $2.1 million.
• Earlier Rank: #8 (org)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Winn was an intriguing two-way prep within the 2020 draft, but it surely wasn’t clear that the place participant facet alone would carry him, regardless of some offensive upside at a premium defensive spot. Two years on, he’s ditched the pitching and developed into one of many higher shortstop prospects within the recreation. Guess the Satan Magic isn’t solely restricted to Day 2 faculty picks.

Winn’s bat broke out in a giant method in 2022 as he began to influence the ball extra constantly. Regardless of a fairly common body, he confirmed off above-average bat velocity and the flexibility to drive pitches into the gaps the place his plus-plus velocity is commonly good for an additional base or two. The highest line exit velocities aren’t near Jordan Walker’s, however point out potential fringe-average pop which suggests Winn would possibly find yourself on the prime of your lineup relatively than the underside given an above-average hit device.

Regardless, you’ll need him in your lineup someplace given the defensive ability set. Winn is a plus shortstop with probably the very best infield arm in organized baseball. He’s rangy with good fingers and actions, and his elite, correct arm permits him an extended clock than most different infielders. The glove will completely get Winn to the majors, however he’s now sufficient of an offensive menace that plus common is in play, even with out the mound work.

OFP: 60 / First-division shortstop
Variance: Excessive. Winn’s Double-A efficiency was extra pedestrian with extra swing-and-miss, so he would possibly settle in additional as an excellent glove who bats eighth. However he’s younger sufficient and had sufficient of a breakout as soon as his sole focus was on hitting that there is likely to be a bit extra within the tank on the plate too.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Whereas his energy could also be fringe, his fantasy worth relies on his influence velocity and promising hit device. Winn can actually fly and is greater than keen to run, going 43-for-48 in steals final 12 months. His stable plate self-discipline, bat-to-ball capacity, and, after all, velocity ought to get him on base at a wholesome clip. Even when he barely edges previous double-digit house runs, Winn has potential to be a dynamic fantasy participant.

• 
• 3.
• Tink Hence
• Pos: P
• Born: 2002-08-06
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 1″
• W: 175 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 63rd total within the 2020 draft, Watson Chapel HS (Pine Bluff, AR); signed for $1,115,000.
• Earlier Rank: On the Rise
• Main League ETA: 2025

The Report: Final 12 months we famous that the Cardinals had been very cautious with Therefore, and he had workload considerations going again to the draft. Sixteen begins and 52 innings—plus a handful within the AFL—received’t assuage these totally, however like Dave Wasserman, I’ve seen sufficient. Equally to Marco Raya within the Twins system, Therefore is only one full(er), wholesome season away from being one of many prime pitching prospects in baseball. His fastball sits mid-90s, touches greater, and is a heavy pitch. His low-spin curve flashes the form of sheer drop you’ll normally solely discover at Six Flags, and his mid-80s change is growing properly, exhibiting extra constant energy sink and fade.

That description of the arsenal certain appears like a top-of-the-rotation starter, however past having simply thrown a tick underneath 70 skilled innings, Therefore has a slim, slim body and an effortful supply. There’s bodily projection left, however I don’t assume he’ll ever look the a part of a sturdy, 180-inning starter. He doesn’t need to throw that many frames to be superb—it’s the 2020s in spite of everything—however the supply additionally results in some overthrowing and fastball command points, and I do surprise the way it holds up when he’s anticipated to go greater than three innings per outing. It is a very, very excessive variance prospect profile, however the fitting tail outcomes alongside that vast swath are fairly tantalizing.

OFP: 60 / no. 3 starter or late inning reliever
Variance: Nicely…very, very excessive. Therefore might very simply escape subsequent 12 months as soon as the coaching wheels come off, finish the season in Double-A, and be a prime 25 prospect within the recreation. He might additionally throw one other 50 innings…intermittently.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Therefore, a standout in June, has three electrical, bat-missing choices that evaluate favorably to a few of the prime pitching prospects in baseball. But, as emphasised above, he’s a excessive–borderline excessive–danger prospect given his body and restricted innings to this point. Relying on how danger averse you’re, Therefore might fall throughout the prime 50 or exterior the highest 100 in fantasy.

• 
• 4.
• Gordon Graceffo
• Pos: P
• Born: 2000-03-17
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 210 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted within the fifth spherical of the 2021 draft, Villanova College; signed for $300,000.
• Earlier Rank: On The Rise
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Shortly after getting drafted by the Cardinals, Graceffo noticed a major velocity bounce, and he maintained it in 2022, usually sitting within the mid-90s with above-average sink and command. The now plus fastball has helped his changeup, and his finest offspeed ticks each field to be plus as properly. He sells the cambio properly, it exhibits good fade away from lefties, and has 10 mph of velocity separation off the fastball. Each of Graceffo’s breaking balls lag behind the remainder of the arsenal. The slider is the first glove-side providing and has common potential within the upper-80s, flashing stable two-plane motion. His curve is used sparingly and has extra of a 12-6 form. Not like Therefore, Graceffo is already constructed like a mid-rotation starter, and whereas his stuff doesn’t have the identical upside, the plus fastball/change combo and superior strikethrowing ought to have him contributing to the Cardinals main league rotation briefly order.

OFP: 60 / no. 3 starter
Variance: Medium. Graceffo missed fewer bats and was a bit extra homer-prone in Double-A, however these issues can occur if you pitch your property video games in Springfield. He does must get a kind of breaking balls to common to hit the mid-rotation end result, however Graceffo is a reasonably high-floor starter after sustaining his 2021 fastball positive factors.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Graceffo is a prototypical higher in-real-life than in fantasy pitching prospect. His fastball, whereas efficient, doesn’t miss many bats, and his pound-the-zone strategy is geared to forcing batters to place the ball in play and avoiding walks. That mentioned, Graceffo ought to be good for sturdy ratios and consuming innings, which at all times has a spot in fantasy.

• 
• 5.
• Cooper Hjerpe
• Pos: P
• Born: 2001-03-16
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 3″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted twenty second total within the 2022 draft, Oregon State College; signed for $3,182,200.
• Earlier Rank: N/A
• Main League ETA: Late 2024/2025

The Report: Hjerpe throws within the low-90s from a close to sidearm arm slot. Nearly no one can hit it. Even 5 years in the past or so, the BP Prospect Workforce would have gathered across the digital desk like Clint Eastwood and John Goodman and contemplated how Hjerpe might have gone within the first spherical. However he most likely wouldn’t have gone within the first spherical then, regardless of being a Golden Spikes finalist after a junior season of utter dominance within the Pac-12. His four-seam fastball from that low slot has elite vertical strategy and regardless of righties getting a protracted take a look at it, they’ve been principally helpless to hit it. Hjerpe additionally gives a classy sweeping slider and a fairly projectable change he hasn’t wanted a lot. He may not want it a lot within the professionals both.

OFP: 55 / no. 3/4 starter
Variance: Medium. We’ll see if professional hitters additionally hate Hjerpe’s one bizarre trick, however there’s a pair of first rate secondaries backing the fastball, and he’s at all times thrown strikes.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Hjerpe is a unicorn, “with a sub-4.5-foot vertical and -3.5-foot horizontal launch level–decrease and wider than any beginning pitcher in MLB.” The individuality of his launch level causes all his choices to play up. It additionally makes it troublesome to undertaking him. Nobody hit him in faculty. Hjerpe is a profile to gamble on after the highest bats in upcoming FYPDs.

• 
• 6.
• Leonardo Bernal
• Pos: C
• Born: 2004-02-13
• B: Change
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 0″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Signed January 2021 out of Panama for $680,000.
• Earlier Rank: N/A
• Main League ETA: 2026

The Report: The Cardinals highest-dollar signing within the 2021 IFA class, Bernal carried out properly in an aggressive task to the Florida State League as an 18-year-old. Already constructed like a significant league backstop, he units a giant, regular goal, is a quiet, versatile receiver with good fingers, and is twitchy and reactive on balls within the grime. The one weak point in Bernal’s defensive recreation is fringy arm power and carry which he covers for to an extent with a fast switch and launch.

On the plate, the swap hitting catcher is way extra superior from the left facet, with above-average exits regardless of nonetheless being a young person for one more season. Bernal is compact inside, degree towards balls up within the zone, and capable of flip and raise fastballs along with his solid-average bat velocity. There’s a hair an excessive amount of swing-and-miss within the zone—particularly towards offspeed—however a few of that may be defined by seeing full-season spin for the primary time in his life. The proper-handed swing is a little more of a piece in progress, not unusual for an inexperienced switch-hitter, but it surely’s properly, properly behind the lefty stroke at this level—extra tentative, much less in sync along with his decrease half, and extra liable to each strikeouts and weak contact.

It’s a protracted path from an 18-year-old catcher in A-ball to the majors, and Bernal doesn’t have a lot to provide again on the plate if the standard offensive attrition takes maintain as he makes his method by means of the minors. However he’s a sophisticated prospect on each offense and protection already, and any positive factors with the hit device, particularly from the fitting facet, might transfer him into the High 101 dialog earlier than he’s legally capable of drink.

OFP: 55 / Above-average catcher
Variance: Excessive. Regardless of being ranked forward of Ivan Herrera on the 2023 model of this listing, a wonderfully affordable end result is Bernal slides down the Cardinals rankings like Herrera did, because the offensive instruments get overwhelmed again by the pains of on a regular basis catching. A twenty fifth percentile end result right here is one thing like a 3rd catcher in your 40 for just a few years. Bernal additionally does have the potential to be one of many 5 finest backstops within the recreation, oh…six years or so from now. Catchers are bizarre, man.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Typically, it’s not suggested to focus on 18-year-old catchers absent extraordinary circumstances. Bernal practically justifies it along with his spectacular pop, together with a 110 mph max exit velocity and 87 mph common exit velocity in Low-A. His uncooked strategy wants work, although. In deeper codecs or two-catcher codecs, he ought to be in your radar.

• 
• 7.
• Alec Burleson
• Pos: RF
• Born: 1998-11-25
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 2″
• W: 212 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted seventieth total within the 2020 draft, East Carolina College; signed for $700,000.
• Earlier Rank: #4 (org)
• Main League ETA: Debuted in 2022

The Report: Burleson continued to rake within the higher minors in 2022, leaving opposing pitchers singing the blues once they got here by means of Memphis. He’s steep however direct to the ball, and prioritizes contact with two strikes, making him able to driving pitches early in counts, whereas being a pesky out in a while. Burleson does prefer to swing, however he doesn’t increase a lot. The 2-strike strategy has saved his strikeout price low, however can restrict his capacity to influence the ball, in order that bears watching within the majors, however given his capacity to sting stuff within the zone usually, he looks like that basic Cardinals .270, 22-home run man. Burleson might want to get all the way in which there although, as he’s unlikely to run stellar OBPs and has restricted defensive worth. He’s fringy in a nook outfield spot as he’s, properly, a burly dude, and his reads and routes aren’t preferrred, and first base—which he performed a good bit of in his main league cameo—is occupied for the subsequent couple seasons. St. Louis is nearly as good as any staff in baseball when it comes to defensive positioning although, and if they will stand Burleson in ok spots on the grass, you’ll be greater than fantastic seeing him standing within the batter’s field day in and time out.

OFP: 55 / Three corners bat with simply sufficient hit and energy to play on a regular basis
Variance: Medium. Burleson’s first run within the majors was higher than the highest line numbers, however he has little or no margin for the offensive instruments as it is a bat-first profile.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: A “basic Cardinals .270, 22-home run man” is beneficial in most fantasy codecs. Whether or not the Cardinals will abdomen Burleson’s protection to get his bat of their crowded lineup, although, is an actual concern. Regardless, he ought to obtain a glance this 12 months sooner or later and both thrive or enable fantasy managers to maneuver on. Burleson ought to be rostered in codecs with as much as 200 prospects.

• 
• 8.
• Matthew Liberatore
• Pos: P
• Born: 1999-11-06
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted sixteenth total within the 2018 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, Mountain Ridge HS (Phoenix, AZ); signed for $3,497,500. Acquired from the Rays for Randy Arozarena.
• Earlier Rank: #3 (org), #65 (High 101)
• Main League ETA: Debuted in 2022

The Report: Liberatore has bounced across the center of our High 101 for a number of years now as a high-probability mid-rotation lefty. He by no means actually dominated within the minors, however with the misplaced 2020 and a bounce straight type A-ball to Triple-A, you possibly can give him some leeway. However in the end these stories are about projecting main league efficiency, and neither Liberatore’s Triple-A or MLB work recommend a clear-cut above-average main league starter anymore. There’s stuff to love nonetheless, particularly the secondary stuff. Liberatore’s high-spin, mid-70s curve has a pleasant form and misses a good quantity of bats, and his upper-80s slider bores in on righties and has sufficient run to make it a difficult left-on-left providing as properly. The principle drawback is Liberatore’s fastball will get hit onerous. A few of it is a management and command situation, a few of it’s a motion and spin situation, He’s run pretty important platoon splits within the upper-minors and his sparingly used change isn’t going to mitigate that within the medium time period. If Liberatore tightens up the command and will get some extra floor balls—maybe he might lean on his sinker a bit greater than the four-seam—the offspeed is likely to be above-average sufficient to make him a helpful backend starter.

OFP: 50 / no. 4 starter
Variance: Low. Liberatore is major-league-ready—and has main league service time—however may not have a major-league swing-and-miss pitch.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: A back-end starter with out “a major-league swing-and-miss pitch” and a hittable fastball shouldn’t usually be rostered exterior of deep codecs. Liberatore’s proximity and breaking balls present sufficient intrigue to maintain him on the fantasy radar in codecs with as much as 200 prospects.

• 
• 9.
• Michael McGreevy
• Pos: P
• Born: 2000-07-08
• B: Left
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 215 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 18th total within the 2021 draft, UC-Santa Barbara; signed for $2.75 million.
• Earlier Rank: #6 (org)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023

The Report: Like Graceffo, McGreevy bought a 2021 velocity bump, though his got here throughout his junior season for UC-Santa Barbara. He additionally held his positive factors in 2022, however his fastball is extra low-90s than 95. The pitch works within the zone although, as a consequence of with the ability to sink it down, journey it up, and customarily work across the margins with above-average command. McGreevy did begin to run into points in Double-A, and whereas a few of that may be defined by park and league context, he might lack a swing-and-miss providing amongst his three secondaries. His mid-80s change is the very best current choice. It’s an average-ish pitch he can pull the string on on occasion, however tends to twist it off a bit and it’ll agency up. His mid-80s slider has extra reduce than tilt, and is inconsistent in form, whereas his low-80s curve has a extra repeatable 11-6 break, however is brief and probably not a bat misser.  McGreevy has an uptempo supply, however repeats it properly and his command profile is ok sufficient, but it surely’s not a carrying device to mid-rotation starter by itself.

OFP: 50 / no. 4 starter
Variance: Low. I feel it’s truthful to pref McGreevy over Liberatore—I went forwards and backwards—as he’s extra more likely to have success throwing his fastball within the zone towards main league hitters, and his command is a bit finer. The shortage of a transparent swing-and-miss secondary goes to restrict the ceiling at current although, and he struggled at his first run in Double-A.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Command-first profiles with mediocre stuff can become viable fantasy arms, however the margins are slim, and narrower nonetheless and not using a bat-missing secondary providing like McGreevy.

• 
• 10.
• Iván Herrera
• Pos: C
• Born: 2000-06-01
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 5′ 11″
• W: 220 lbs.
• Historical past: Signed July 2016 out of Panamá by the Cardinals for $200,000.
• Earlier Rank: #9 (org)
• Main League ETA: 2023

The Report: After prospect writers spent properly over a decade writing up Cardinals catching prospects blocked by Yadier Molina, Herrera is in the fitting place on the proper time to stake a declare as the subsequent beginning catcher in Busch Stadium. He’s improved behind the plate and is now a cultured, above-average defender, an excellent receiver who units a giant, quiet goal. The ability he confirmed in 2021 didn’t return, however the tradeoff was a bit extra bat to ball. The general offensive instruments are going to be fringy, as Herrera isn’t very twitchy on the plate—and he can battle to get to velocity on the outer half—however as a stable defensive backstop who might pop double-digit house runs, he’ll at the least be placing his title within the hat to switch St. Louis’ long-tenured star backstop.

OFP: 50 / Common catcher, glove over bat
Variance: Low. Molina has lastly retired, opening up the Cardinals beginning catching function for the primary time for the reason that George W. Bush administration. Herrera is more likely to be a candidate for the Opening Day job as he has a robust glove and little left to show within the minors. However he additionally doesn’t have the form of upside that will maintain you from buying and selling a pair names greater on this listing for say, Sean Murphy as an alternative.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Herrera seems to have a reasonably clear path to a considerable function subsequent 12 months. On the identical time, the Cardinals additionally seem like linked to simply about each catcher rumor on the market. If Herrera runs into a daily function, nevertheless, he might shock with loads of contact and sneaky pop. That’s one large “if,” although.