2022 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

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Under is our listing of the highest 100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries had been compiled with data offered by accessible information and trade sources, in addition to from our personal observations. That is the second yr we’re delineating between two anticipated aid roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see within the “place” column beneath: MIRP for multi-inning aid pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning aid pitchers.

And now, a number of essential issues to bear in mind as you’re perusing the High 100. You’ll observe that prospects are ranked by quantity but in addition lie inside tiers demarcated by their Future Worth grades. The FV grade is extra essential than the ordinal rating. For instance, the hole between Julio Rodríguez (No. 4) and Triston Casas (No. 16) is 12 spots, and there’s a considerable distinction in expertise between them. The hole between Mark Vientos (No. 64) and Patrick Bailey (No. 76), in the meantime, can also be 12 numerical locations, however the distinction in expertise is comparatively small. You might have observed that there are greater than 100 prospects within the desk beneath, and greater than 100 scouting summaries. That’s as a result of we’ve got additionally included 50 FV prospects whose rating fell outdoors the 100. Their stories seem beneath, beneath the “Different 50 FV Prospects” header. The identical comparative precept applies to them.

You’ll additionally discover that there’s a Future Worth final result distribution graph for every prospect on the listing. That is an try to graphically signify how probably every FV final result is for every prospect. Earlier than his departure for ESPN, Kiley McDaniel used the great work of our former colleague Craig Edwards to search out the bottom charges for every FV tier of prospect (individually for hitters and pitchers), and the chance of every FV final result. For instance, based mostly on Craig’s analysis, the common 60 FV hitter on a listing turns into a perennial 5-plus WAR participant over his six managed years 26% of the time, and has a 27% likelihood of accumulating, at most, a few WAR throughout his six managed years. We began with these base charges for each participant on this yr’s listing after which manually tweaked them relying on our extra particular opinions concerning the participant. As an illustration, Elly De La Cruz and Steven Kwan are each 50 FV prospects, however they’re nothing alike. De La Cruz could possibly be a switch-hitting shortstop with plus-plus energy or he may flip into Seuly Matias. In the meantime, Kwan has carried out by the higher minors and is nearly sure to contribute to a giant league crew, however doesn’t have almost the identical energy potential or high-end ceiling De La Cruz does. Our hope is that the distribution graphs mirror these sorts of variations.

This yr’s crop of prospects is just a little bit down within the 60 and 55 FV tiers. Sometimes, the 55 FV tier runs to concerning the fiftieth total prospect on the High 100 (which once more isn’t actually a High 100, a lot as a rating of all of the 50 FV and above prospects, however that title is an search engine optimization nightmare), however this yr’s group solely extends by No. 32. This is perhaps resulting from random variation within the prospect inhabitants, or should do with the misplaced yr of growth in 2020 or the new rules surrounding rookie eligibility, which brought about a number of gamers to graduate off our lists extra rapidly than up to now. Jose Barrero and Keibert Ruiz, for instance, would have been eligible beneath the older roster guidelines. These guys will be discovered on The Board’s Graduates section. Or maybe our evaluations are simply fallacious.

For an additional clarification of the deserves and downsides of Future Worth, please learn this and this. If you want to learn a book-length therapy on the topic, one is offered here.

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