13 seconds or less: a new NBA offensive revolution?

Final Friday morning, I used to be having fun with my cup of espresso and watching the Cleveland Cavaliers towards the Detroit Pistons. It felt like an everyday morning for an everyday day within the common season.

But it surely wasn’t.

After only a few possessions, I may sense the Cavaliers’ urgency to start out their offense as shortly as potential. Following a free ball, Darius Garland threw it to the referee, instantly signaling to get the ball again so he may provoke the offense. It should have one thing to do with their new coach, Kenny Atkinson.

I had the identical feeling concerning the Pistons’ offense. The Pistons, now coached by J.B. Bickerstaff, the previous Cavaliers coach. So, what’s occurring right here? May this be a broader development? Though we’re nonetheless early within the season, the numbers recommend this is likely to be the beginning of an NBA offensive revolution.

Each groups are getting of their offense as quick as potential, after a miss, or a make.

Sooner than ever

According to Inpredictable.com, the common seconds per possession throughout the NBA is up. Final season, the common possession lasted 14.5 seconds, in comparison with 14.1 this yr. That half-second distinction could appear minor, however it might probably have a big affect if the development continues.

What’s much more hanging is the variety of groups averaging fewer than 13 seconds per possession. Since 2016-17, just one crew has fallen beneath that mark—the 2018-19 OKC Thunder. However this season, there are 4 groups averaging lower than 13 seconds — in different phrases, 4 groups attacking quicker than ever within the fashionable NBA.

Skeptics would possibly argue that this small pattern dimension is influenced by early-season turnovers, resulting in extra transition alternatives and quicker possessions. Nevertheless, Inpredictable.com permits us to filter possessions that happen after a made basket, which higher displays a crew’s strategic option to assault shortly.

Final yr, the Indiana Pacers shocked the NBA by attacking and operating proper after a made basket. Tyrese Haliburton and his squad reached the Japanese Convention Finals by enjoying a disruptive fashion that compelled opponents’ defenses into uncomfortable positions and one in every of their keys was attacking early. After an opponent’s made basket, the Pacers’ common possession size was 16 seconds.

This season, if the Pacers had been nonetheless averaging 16 seconds, they might rank solely sixth within the NBA! There are actually 5 groups outpacing final yr’s Pacers. A few of these groups function inventive coaches (like Steve Kerr) or fast-paced level guards (De’Aaron Fox, Ja Morant, Trae Younger). Essentially the most shocking crew? The Chicago Bulls.

Below Billy Donovan, the Bulls have been utilizing their new addition, Josh Giddey, as a quarterback to take advantage of defenses which are sluggish to get again into place. The Bucks, for instance, had been an ideal case examine, with the slower Brook Lopez anchoring their protection. Right here for instance, Bulls are creating a simple scenario for Zach LaVine simply by performing early within the possession.

The NBA is a copycat league. Final yr, the Pacers ran an early-offense system that produced one of many league’s most effective offenses in NBA historical past. And amongst final season’s elite offenses, the Pacers’ technique is maybe the simplest to mimic.

With the NBA is consistently evolving, staying forward of the innovation curve may help groups win, however the remainder of the league is at all times fast to comply with. Improvements like a give attention to analytics, the pick-and-roll, or drop protection had been shortly adopted by groups as soon as they proved efficient.

Some improvements, nonetheless, are tougher to copy. As an illustration, it’s practically inconceivable for different groups to repeat the Celtics’ offense — 7’2” facilities who can shoot threes don’t develop on bushes. However the Pacers’ early-offense blueprint may be tailored by different groups, no matter roster make-up. The purpose is to forestall defenses from settling into place earlier than the offense begins. You don’t want a Tyrese Haliburton or Pascal Siakam to do this.

The Pacers have proven that attacking early works, and so they’ve given the league a mannequin to comply with. We is likely to be witnessing a brand new NBA revolution, the place groups have gotten extra aggressive after a made basket—eliminating the pause and suffocating opposing defenses earlier than they’ll even arrange.